Energy Market Uncertainties and Exchange Rate Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Other versions of this item:
- Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2024. "Energy market uncertainties and exchange rate volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
References listed on IDEAS
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016.
"Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test,"
Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
- Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark Wohar, 2015. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Working Papers 201599, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Ben Salem, Leila & Zayati, Montassar & Nouira, Ridha & Rault, Christophe, 2024.
"Volatility spillover between oil prices and main exchange rates: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH-connectedness approach,"
Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
- Leila Ben Salem & Montassar Zayati & Ridha Nouira & Christophe Rault, 2024. "Volatility Spillover between Oil Prices and Main Exchange Rates: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH-Connectedness Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10989, CESifo.
- Salem, Leila Ben & Zayati, Montassar & Nouira, Ridha & Rault, Christophe, 2024. "Volatility Spillover between Oil Prices and Main Exchange Rates: Evidence from a DCC-GARCH-Connectedness Approach," IZA Discussion Papers 16832, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
- Mr. Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Ms. Natalia T. Tamirisa & Mr. Azim M Sadikov & Mr. Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 2004/009, International Monetary Fund.
- Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2022.
"Measuring Geopolitical Risk,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1194-1225, April.
- Dario Caldara & Matteo Iacoviello, 2018. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," International Finance Discussion Papers 1222r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 23 Mar 2022.
- Matteo Iacoviello, 2018. "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," 2018 Meeting Papers 79, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2024.
"Energy-related uncertainty and international stock market volatility,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-293.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Energy-Related Uncertainty and International Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 202336, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016.
"Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 15111, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 21633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEP Discussion Papers dp1379, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Baker, Scott R. & Bloom, Nicholas & Davis, Steven J., 2015. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 64986, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Davis, Steven & Bloom, Nicholas & Baker, Scott, 2015. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 10900, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Abdullahi Musa & Afees A. Salisu & Saleh Abulbashar & Chinecherem D. Okoronkwo, 2022. "Oil price uncertainty and real exchange rate in a global VAR framework: a note," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 46(4), pages 704-712, October.
- Zhou, Jun & Yin, Zhichao & Yue, Pengpeng, 2023. "The impact of access to credit on energy efficiency," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
- Robert F. Engle & Eric Ghysels & Bumjean Sohn, 2013. "Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Fundamentals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 776-797, July.
- Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2012.
"Risk, Monetary Policy, and the Exchange Rate,"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 247-309.
- Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2011. "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 247-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gianluca Benigno & Pierpaolo Benigno & Salvatore Nisticò, 2011. "Risk, Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 17133, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2012.
"Index Investment and the Financialization of Commodities,"
Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 68(6), pages 54-74, November.
- Ke Tang & Wei Xiong, 2010. "Index Investment and Financialization of Commodities," NBER Working Papers 16385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis & Tahir Suleman, 2018.
"The role of economic uncertainty in forecasting exchange rate returns and realized volatility: Evidence from quantile predictive regressions,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(7), pages 705-719, November.
- Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Christis Hassapis & Tahir Suleman, 2017. "The Role of Economic Uncertainty in Forecasting Exchange Rate Returns and Realized Volatility: Evidence from Quantile Predictive Regressions," Working Papers 201774, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2024.
"Geopolitical risks and energy uncertainty: Implications for global and domestic energy prices,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
- Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2024. "Geopolitical Risks and Energy Uncertainty: Implications for Global and Domestic Energy Prices," Working Papers 2413, Florida International University, Department of Economics.
- Colacito, Riccardo & Engle, Robert F. & Ghysels, Eric, 2011. "A component model for dynamic correlations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 164(1), pages 45-59, September.
- David E. Rapach & Jack K. Strauss, 2008. "Structural breaks and GARCH models of exchange rate volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 65-90.
- Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023.
"Climate risks and realized volatility of major commodity currency exchange rates,"
Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Climate Risks and Realized Volatility of Major Commodity Currency Exchange Rates," Working Papers 202210, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Nouira, Ridha & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Rault, Christophe, 2019.
"Oil price fluctuations and exchange rate dynamics in the MENA region: Evidence from non-causality-in-variance and asymmetric non-causality tests,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 159-171.
- Ridha Nouira & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Christophe Rault, 2018. "Oil Price Fluctuations and Exchange Rate Dynamics in the MENA Region: Evidence from Non-Causality-in- Variance and Asymmetric Non-Causality Tests," CESifo Working Paper Series 7201, CESifo.
- repec:hal:journl:hal-04798539 is not listed on IDEAS
- Salisu, Afees A. & Cuñado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2022.
"Geopolitical risks and historical exchange rate volatility of the BRICS,"
International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 179-190.
- Afees A. Salisu & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2020. "Geopolitical Risks and Historical Exchange Rate Volatility of the BRICS," Working Papers 2020105, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Dang, Tam Hoang-Nhat & Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Lee, Gabriel S. & Nguyen, Binh Quang & Le, Thuy Thu, 2023. "Measuring the energy-related uncertainty index," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
- Richard Agyabeng Donkor & Lord Mensah & Emmanuel Sarpong-Kumankoma, 2022. "Oil price volatility and US dollar exchange rate volatility of some oil-dependent economies," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 581-597, May.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ruipeng Liu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Mark Wohar, 2020. "Volatility forecasting with bivariate multifractal models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 155-167, March.
- Clements, Michael P & Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2008. "Macroeconomic Forecasting With Mixed-Frequency Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 546-554.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2021.
"Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 369-410, October.
- Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma & Serena Ng, 2015. "Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response?," NBER Working Papers 21803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Asteriou, Dimitrios & Masatci, Kaan & Pılbeam, Keith, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 133-140.
- S. M. Abdullah & Salina Siddiqua & Muhammad Shahadat Hossain Siddiquee & Nazmul Hossain, 2017. "Modeling and forecasting exchange rate volatility in Bangladesh using GARCH models: a comparison based on normal and Student’s t-error distribution," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, December.
- Abiad, Abdul & Qureshi, Irfan A., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of oil price uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Salisu, Afees A. & Mobolaji, Hakeem, 2013. "Modeling returns and volatility transmission between oil price and US–Nigeria exchange rate," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 169-176.
- Zhao, Jun & Wang, Bo & Dong, Kangyin & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Ni, Guohua, 2023. "How do energy price shocks affect global economic stability? Reflection on geopolitical conflicts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
- Eric Ghysels & Alberto Plazzi & Rossen Valkanov & Antonio Rubia & Asad Dossani, 2019. "Direct Versus Iterated Multiperiod Volatility Forecasts," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 11(1), pages 173-195, December.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2024.
"Energy-related uncertainty and international stock market volatility,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 280-293.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2023. "Energy-Related Uncertainty and International Stock Market Volatility," Working Papers 202336, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E.Oghonna & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2024. "Energy Market Uncertainties and US State-Level Stock Market Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202409, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Elie Bouri & Rangan Gupta, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Bank-Level Stock Returns Volatility of the United States: A Mixed-Frequency Perspective," Working Papers 202444, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2023.
"Testing the forecasting power of global economic conditions for the volatility of international REITs using a GARCH-MIDAS approach,"
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 303-314.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2022. "Testing the Forecasting Power of Global Economic Conditions for the Volatility of International REITs using a GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202211, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni & Petre Caraiani, 2024.
"Oil shocks and state-level stock market volatility of the United States: a GARCH-MIDAS approach,"
Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1473-1510, November.
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni & Petre Caraiani, 2023. "Oil Shocks and State-Level Stock Market Volatility of the United States: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202327, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Bonato, Matteo & Cepni, Oguzhan & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2023.
"Climate risks and realized volatility of major commodity currency exchange rates,"
Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2022. "Climate Risks and Realized Volatility of Major Commodity Currency Exchange Rates," Working Papers 202210, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Konstantinos Gkillas & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2018. "Forecasting (Good and Bad) Realized Exchange-Rate Volatility: Is there a Role for Realized Skewness and Kurtosis?," Working Papers 201879, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Rangan Gupta & Sisa Shiba, 2024. "Energy Market Uncertainties and Gold Return Volatility: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202431, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Afees A. Salisu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2023.
"Policy uncertainty and stock market volatility revisited: The predictive role of signal quality,"
Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(8), pages 2307-2321, December.
- Afees A. Salisu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Volatility Revisited: The Predictive Role of Signal Quality," Working Papers 202232, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Salisu, Afees A. & Ogbonna, Ahamuefula E. & Lasisi, Lukman & Olaniran, Abeeb, 2022. "Geopolitical risk and stock market volatility in emerging markets: A GARCH – MIDAS approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
- Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Demirer, Riza, 2022.
"Global financial cycle and the predictability of oil market volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS model,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
- Afees A. Salisu & Rangan Gupta & Riza Demirer, 2021. "Global Financial Cycle and the Predictability of Oil Market Volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS Model," Working Papers 202121, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- O-Chia Chuang & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch & Buliao Shu, 2024. "Financial Uncertainty and Gold Market Volatility: Evidence from a GARCH-MIDAS Approach with Variable Selection," Working Papers 202441, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Wu, Xinyu & Xie, Haibin & Zhang, Huanming, 2022. "Time-varying risk aversion and renminbi exchange rate volatility: Evidence from CARR-MIDAS model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
- Afees A. Salisu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta, 2023. "Technological Shocks and Stock Market Volatility Over a Century: A GARCH-MIDAS Approach," Working Papers 202308, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Adediran, Idris A. & Swaray, Raymond, 2023. "Carbon trading amidst global uncertainty: The role of policy and geopolitical uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
- Afees A. Salisu & Wenting Liao & Rangan Gupta & Oguzhan Cepni, 2023. "Economic Conditions and Predictability of US Stock Returns Volatility: Local Factor versus National Factor in a GARCH-MIDAS Model," Working Papers 202323, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Nonejad, Nima, 2023. "Conditional out-of-sample predictability of aggregate equity returns and aggregate equity return volatility using economic variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-122.
- Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "An interesting finding about the ability of geopolitical risk to forecast aggregate equity return volatility out-of-sample," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB).
- Nonejad, Nima, 2022. "Predicting equity premium out-of-sample by conditioning on newspaper-based uncertainty measures: A comparative study," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
- Liu, Yang & Han, Liyan & Xu, Yang, 2021. "The impact of geopolitical uncertainty on energy volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
More about this item
Keywords
Monthly Oil Price and Energy Market Uncertainties; Daily Exchange Rate Returns Volatility; GARCH-MIDAS; Forecasting;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ENE-2024-05-13 (Energy Economics)
- NEP-OPM-2024-05-13 (Open Economy Macroeconomics)
- NEP-RMG-2024-05-13 (Risk Management)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:202418. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.