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Trading time seasonality in commodity futures: An opportunity for arbitrage in the natural gas and crude oil markets?

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  • Ewald, Christian-Oliver
  • Haugom, Erik
  • Lien, Gudbrand
  • Størdal, Ståle
  • Wu, Yuexiang

Abstract

In this paper we investigate energy futures contracts and the presence of a type of seasonality, that has been given very little to no attention in the literature —- we call it trading time seasonality. Such seasonality is exposed through the futures trading time, not its maturity time, nor the underlying spot price. As we show, it can be linked to seasonality in the pricing kernel, but the latter cannot explain it fully. Its relationship to arbitrage and CAPM violation is investigated, and its presence is confirmed for natural gas and crude oil futures markets using descriptive analysis, Kruskal–Wallis testing and CAPM methodology. We provide an informal discussion around possible reasons for the effect and identify seasonal hedging pressure and market sentiments as such.

Suggested Citation

  • Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Haugom, Erik & Lien, Gudbrand & Størdal, Ståle & Wu, Yuexiang, 2022. "Trading time seasonality in commodity futures: An opportunity for arbitrage in the natural gas and crude oil markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:115:y:2022:i:c:s0140988322004534
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106324
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sun, Chuanwang & Min, Jialin & Sun, Jiacheng & Gong, Xu, 2023. "The role of China's crude oil futures in world oil futures market and China's financial market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    2. Størdal, Ståle & Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Lien, Gudbrand & Haugom, Erik, 2023. "Trading time seasonality in electricity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Futures; Crude oil; Natural gas; Seasonality; Arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q49 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Other
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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