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Macroeconomic Seasonality and the January Effect

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  • Kramer, Charles

Abstract

Many financial markets researchers have sought an explanation for the role of January in stock returns. Any explanation of this phenomenon that is consistent with rational pricing must specify a source of seasonality in expected returns. The pervasive seasonality in the macroeconomy is an appealing possibility. A multifactor model that links macroeconomic risk to expected return is found to show substantial seasonality in expected returns. This model accounts for the seasonality in average returns, while the capital asset pricing model cannot. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Kramer, Charles, 1994. "Macroeconomic Seasonality and the January Effect," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1883-1891, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:49:y:1994:i:5:p:1883-91
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniel P. J. Capocci, 2009. "The persistence in hedge fund performance: extended analysis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(3), pages 233-255.
    2. Kiseok Lee, 1999. "Unexpected inflation, inflation uncertainty, and stock returns," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 315-328.
    3. Wagner, Moritz & Lee, John Byong-Tek & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2022. "Mutual fund flows and seasonalities in stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    4. Sadorsky, Perry, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    5. Lijuan Zhang & Mark Wilson, 2018. "Does the accruals quality premium arise from information risk?," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(2), pages 599-632, June.
    6. Podgórski Błażej, 2018. "Impact of the January Effect on Return Rates in the Markets of the 2004 EU Enlargement," Journal of Management and Business Administration. Central Europe, Sciendo, vol. 26(1), pages 27-48, March.
    7. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    8. Qiwei Chen, 2013. "Risk and seasonal effects: international evidence," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 299-311, November.
    9. Kramer, Charles, 1999. "Noise trading, transaction costs, and the relationship of stock returns and trading volume," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 343-362, November.
    10. Colm Kearney & Kevin Daly, 1998. "The causes of stock market volatility in Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 597-605.
    11. Inchauspe, Julian & Li, Jun & Park, Jason, 2020. "Seasonal patterns of global oil consumption: Implications for long term energy policy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 536-556.
    12. Beladi, Hamid & Chao, Chi Chur & Hu, May, 2016. "Another January effect—Evidence from stock split announcements," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 123-138.
    13. Gu, Anthony Yanxiang, 2003. "The declining January effect: evidences from the U.S. equity markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 395-404.
    14. Matti Keloharju & Juhani T. Linnainmaa & Peter Nyberg, 2014. "Common Factors in Return Seasonalities," NBER Working Papers 20815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Herrerias, M.J., 2013. "Seasonal anomalies in electricity intensity across Chinese regions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1548-1557.
    16. Kearney, Colm & Daly, Kevin, 1997. "Monetary volatility and real output volatility: An empirical model of the financial transmission mechanism in Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 77-95.
    17. Perry Sadorsky, 2003. "The macroeconomic determinants of technology stock price volatility," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 12(2), pages 191-205.
    18. Arbab Khalid Cheema & Wenjie Ding & Qingwei Wang, 2023. "The cross-section of January effect," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(6), pages 513-530, October.
    19. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Macroeconomic Factors Strike Back: A Bayesian Change-Point Model of Time-Varying Risk Exposures and Premia in the U.S. Cross-Section," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 110-129, January.
    20. Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Haugom, Erik & Lien, Gudbrand & Størdal, Ståle & Wu, Yuexiang, 2022. "Trading time seasonality in commodity futures: An opportunity for arbitrage in the natural gas and crude oil markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    21. Zaremba, Adam & Schabek, Tomasz, 2017. "Seasonality in government bond returns and factor premia," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 292-302.
    22. Ji, Xiuqing & Martin, J. Spencer & Yao, Yaqiong, 2017. "Macroeconomic risk and seasonality in momentum profits," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 76-90.
    23. Camilleri, Silvio John, 2008. "Month-Related Seasonality of Stock Price Volatility: Evidence from the Malta Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 62493, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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