IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v54y2018i8p1793-1807.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Forward Premium in the Nord Pool Power Market

Author

Listed:
  • Erik Haugom
  • Guttorm A. Hoff
  • Peter Molnár
  • Maria Mortensen
  • Sjur Westgaard

Abstract

This article investigates the forward premium of futures contracts in the Nordic power market for the time period from January 2004 to December 2013. We find that futures prices are biased predictors of the subsequent spot prices and that there is a significant forward premium in the Nord Pool market, particularly during the winter and autumn. We analyze the impact from several factors on the forward premium. The spot price, and the deviation of water inflow from its usual level, positively affect the forward premium. The variance of the spot price also has a positive effect on the forward premium, but only for the contract closest to delivery.

Suggested Citation

  • Erik Haugom & Guttorm A. Hoff & Peter Molnár & Maria Mortensen & Sjur Westgaard, 2018. "The Forward Premium in the Nord Pool Power Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(8), pages 1793-1807, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:8:p:1793-1807
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1441021
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1441021
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2018.1441021?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lyu, Chenyan & Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Volatility spillovers and carbon price in the Nordic wholesale electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    2. Tadahiro Nakajima, 2019. "Expectations for Statistical Arbitrage in Energy Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-12, January.
    3. Tarjei Kristiansen, 2023. "Analyzing Risk Premiums in the Brazilian Power Market: A Quantitative Study," Commodities, MDPI, vol. 2(4), pages 1-16, November.
    4. Erik Haugom & Peter Molnár & Magne Tysdahl, 2020. "Determinants of the Forward Premium in the Nord Pool Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-18, March.
    5. Cao, K.H. & Qi, H.S. & Tsai, C.H. & Woo, C.K. & Zarnikau, J., 2021. "Energy trading efficiency in the US Midcontinent electricity markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 302(C).
    6. Størdal, Ståle & Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Lien, Gudbrand & Haugom, Erik, 2023. "Trading time seasonality in electricity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    7. Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Haugom, Erik & Lien, Gudbrand & Størdal, Ståle & Wu, Yuexiang, 2022. "Trading time seasonality in commodity futures: An opportunity for arbitrage in the natural gas and crude oil markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:8:p:1793-1807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.