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Seasonal and stochastic effects in commodity forward curves

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  • Svetlana Borovkova
  • Helyette Geman

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  • Svetlana Borovkova & Helyette Geman, 2006. "Seasonal and stochastic effects in commodity forward curves," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 167-186, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:revdev:v:9:y:2006:i:2:p:167-186
    DOI: 10.1007/s11147-007-9008-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert C. Merton, 2005. "Theory of rational option pricing," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Sudipto Bhattacharya & George M Constantinides (ed.), Theory Of Valuation, chapter 8, pages 229-288, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    2. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    3. Nikolaos T. Milonas, 1991. "Measuring seasonalities in commodity markets and the half‐month effect," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 331-345, June.
    4. Hull, John & White, Alan, 1990. "Pricing Interest-Rate-Derivative Securities," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(4), pages 573-592.
    5. Nicholas Kaldor, 1939. "Speculation and Economic Stability," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27.
    6. Bryan R. Routledge & Duane J. Seppi & Chester S. Spatt, 2000. "Equilibrium Forward Curves for Commodities," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1297-1338, June.
    7. Gibson, Rajna & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1990. "Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 959-976, July.
    8. Litzenberger, Robert H & Rabinowitz, Nir, 1995. "Backwardation in Oil Futures Markets: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1517-1545, December.
    9. Unknown, 2005. "Forward," 2005 Conference: Slovenia in the EU - Challenges for Agriculture, Food Science and Rural Affairs, November 10-11, 2005, Moravske Toplice, Slovenia 183804, Slovenian Association of Agricultural Economists (DAES).
    10. Brennan, Michael J & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1985. "Evaluating Natural Resource Investments," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(2), pages 135-157, April.
    11. Hélyette Geman & Vu-Nhat Nguyen, 2005. "Soybean Inventory and Forward Curve Dynamics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(7), pages 1076-1091, July.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1937 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Black, Fischer, 1976. "The pricing of commodity contracts," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 167-179.
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    Cited by:

    1. Deschatre, Thomas & Féron, Olivier & Gruet, Pierre, 2021. "A survey of electricity spot and futures price models for risk management applications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    2. Horváth, Lajos & Liu, Zhenya & Rice, Gregory & Wang, Shixuan, 2020. "A functional time series analysis of forward curves derived from commodity futures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 646-665.
    3. Ladokhin, Sergiy & Borovkova, Svetlana, 2021. "Three-factor commodity forward curve model and its joint P and Q dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    4. Back, Janis & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Rudolf, Markus, 2013. "Seasonality and the valuation of commodity options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 273-290.
    5. Shao, Chengwu & Bhar, Ramaprasad & Colwell, David B., 2015. "A multi-factor model with time-varying and seasonal risk premiums for the natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 207-214.
    6. Jesús M. López-Lezama & David Tobón-Orozco & Esteban Velilla & Jorge Barrientos & Fernando Villada, 2018. "Long-term seasonal forwards in electricity generation markets: an application to Colombia," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 37(74), pages 287-314, July.
    7. Farkas, Walter & Gourier, Elise & Huitema, Robert & Necula, Ciprian, 2017. "A two-factor cointegrated commodity price model with an application to spread option pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 249-268.
    8. Zura Kakushadze & Juan Andrés Serur, 2018. "151 Trading Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-030-02792-6, December.
    9. Michel Fliess & Cédric Join, 2015. "Seasonalities and cycles in time series: A fresh look with computer experiments," Post-Print hal-01208171, HAL.
    10. Michel Fliess & C'edric Join, 2015. "Seasonalities and cycles in time series: A fresh look with computer experiments," Papers 1510.00237, arXiv.org.
    11. Mirantes, Andrés García & Población, Javier & Serna, Gregorio, 2013. "The stochastic seasonal behavior of energy commodity convenience yields," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 155-166.
    12. Nicola Secomandi & Guoming Lai & François Margot & Alan Scheller-Wolf & Duane J. Seppi, 2015. "Merchant Commodity Storage and Term-Structure Model Error," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 17(3), pages 302-320, July.
    13. Ioannis Kyriakou & Nikos K. Nomikos & Nikos C. Papapostolou & Panos K. Pouliasis, 2016. "Affine†Structure Models and the Pricing of Energy Commodity Derivatives," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 22(5), pages 853-881, November.
    14. Jinniao Qiu & Antony Ware & Yang Yang, 2024. "Stochastic Path-Dependent Volatility Models for Price-Storage Dynamics in Natural Gas Markets and Discrete-Time Swing Option Pricing," Papers 2406.16400, arXiv.org.
    15. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Pricing Option on Commodity Futures under String Shock," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    16. Svetlana Borovkova & Diego Mahakena, 2015. "News, volatility and jumps: the case of natural gas futures," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 1217-1242, July.
    17. Andrés García Mirantes & Javier Población & Gregorio Serna, 2012. "The Stochastic Seasonal Behaviour of Natural Gas Prices," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 18(3), pages 410-443, June.
    18. Secomandi, Nicola & Seppi, Duane J., 2014. "Real Options and Merchant Operations of Energy and Other Commodities," Foundations and Trends(R) in Technology, Information and Operations Management, now publishers, vol. 6(3-4), pages 161-331, July.
    19. Lee, David, 2022. "Generic Price Model for Commodity Derivatives," MPRA Paper 114283, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Haugom, Erik & Lien, Gudbrand & Størdal, Ståle & Wu, Yuexiang, 2022. "Trading time seasonality in commodity futures: An opportunity for arbitrage in the natural gas and crude oil markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    21. Sheng-Hung Chen & Song-Zan Chiou-Wei & Zhen Zhu, 2022. "Stochastic seasonality in commodity prices: the case of US natural gas," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2263-2284, May.

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