IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v68y2022icp104-115.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Decision-based trades: An analysis of institutional investors’ information advantages

Author

Listed:
  • Jiao, Yawen

Abstract

Investors with future-return-related information use it to strategically adjust past decisions that no longer fit. Using this rationale, we decompose institutional trading into decision-based trades (adjusting past portfolio decisions) and implied trades (implied by past portfolio decisions). Decision-based trades positively predict future stock returns and earnings surprises whereas implied trades negatively predict returns. An institutional investor’s tendency to engage in decision-based trading and the performance of decision-based trades for the top 20% of institutions are highly persistent. The results illustrate institutional investors’ informational advantages in stock markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiao, Yawen, 2022. "Decision-based trades: An analysis of institutional investors’ information advantages," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 104-115.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:68:y:2022:i:c:p:104-115
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.07.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927539822000573
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jempfin.2022.07.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dilip Abreu & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2003. "Bubbles and Crashes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 173-204, January.
    2. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini & Christopher Malloy, 2008. "The Small World of Investing: Board Connections and Mutual Fund Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 116(5), pages 951-979, October.
    3. Brian J. Bushee & Theodore H. Goodman, 2007. "Which Institutional Investors Trade Based on Private Information About Earnings and Returns?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 289-321, May.
    4. Chen, Hsiu-Lang & Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Wermers, Russ, 2000. "The Value of Active Mutual Fund Management: An Examination of the Stockholdings and Trades of Fund Managers," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 343-368, September.
    5. Paul A. Gompers & Andrew Metrick, 2001. "Institutional Investors and Equity Prices," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 229-259.
    6. Bernard, Victor L. & Thomas, Jacob K., 1990. "Evidence that stock prices do not fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 305-340, December.
    7. Marcin Kacperczyk & Clemens Sialm & Lu Zheng, 2008. "Unobserved Actions of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2379-2416, November.
    8. Xuemin (Sterling) Yan & Zhe Zhang, 2009. "Institutional Investors and Equity Returns: Are Short-term Institutions Better Informed?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 893-924, February.
    9. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    10. Frazzini, Andrea & Lamont, Owen A., 2008. "Dumb money: Mutual fund flows and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 299-322, May.
    11. Abreu, Dilip & Brunnermeier, Markus K., 2002. "Synchronization risk and delayed arbitrage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 341-360.
    12. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    13. K. J. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2009. "How Active Is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3329-3365, September.
    14. Holden, Craig W & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1992. "Long-Lived Private Information and Imperfect Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(1), pages 247-270, March.
    15. Jeffrey Hobbs & Vivek Singh & Madhumita Chakraborty, 2021. "Institutional underperformance: Should managers listen to the sell-side before trading?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 389-410, July.
    16. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    17. Foster, F. Douglas & Viswanathan, S., 1994. "Strategic Trading with Asymmetrically Informed Traders and Long-Lived Information," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(4), pages 499-518, December.
    18. James A. Bennett, 2003. "Greener Pastures and the Impact of Dynamic Institutional Preferences," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(4), pages 1203-1238.
    19. Gordon J. Alexander & Gjergji Cici & Scott Gibson, 2007. "Does Motivation Matter When Assessing Trade Performance? An Analysis of Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 125-150, January.
    20. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    21. Kelsey D. Wei & Russ Wermers & Tong Yao, 2015. "Uncommon Value: The Characteristics and Investment Performance of Contrarian Funds," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(10), pages 2394-2414, October.
    22. John M. Griffin & Jeffrey H. Harris & Tao Shu & Selim Topaloglu, 2011. "Who Drove and Burst the Tech Bubble?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(4), pages 1251-1290, August.
    23. Coval, Joshua & Stafford, Erik, 2007. "Asset fire sales (and purchases) in equity markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 479-512, November.
    24. Dong Lou, 2012. "A Flow-Based Explanation for Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(12), pages 3457-3489.
    25. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1993. "The Effect of Public Information and Competition on Trading Volume and Price Volatility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(1), pages 23-56.
    26. Martijn Cremers & Antti Petajisto, 2006. "How Active is Your Fund Manager? A New Measure That Predicts Performance," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2370, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2009.
    27. LUKE DeVAULT & RICHARD SIAS & LAURA STARKS, 2019. "Sentiment Metrics and Investor Demand," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 985-1024, April.
    28. Andy Puckett & Xuemin (Sterling) Yan, 2011. "The Interim Trading Skills of Institutional Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(2), pages 601-633, April.
    29. Paul Calluzzo & Fabio Moneta & Selim Topaloglu, 2019. "When Anomalies Are Publicized Broadly, Do Institutions Trade Accordingly?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4555-4574, October.
    30. Edelen, Roger M. & Ince, Ozgur S. & Kadlec, Gregory B., 2016. "Institutional investors and stock return anomalies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(3), pages 472-488.
    31. Chordia, Tarun & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar & Tong, Qing, 2014. "Have capital market anomalies attenuated in the recent era of high liquidity and trading activity?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 41-58.
    32. Jiao, Yawen & Massa, Massimo & Zhang, Hong, 2016. "Short selling meets hedge fund 13F: An anatomy of informed demand," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 544-567.
    33. Bin Ke & Kathy Petroni, 2004. "How Informed Are Actively Trading Institutional Investors? Evidence from Their Trading Behavior before a Break in a String of Consecutive Earnings Increases," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 895-927, December.
    34. Ying Duan & Edith S. Hotchkiss & Yawen Jiao, 2018. "Business Ties and Information Advantage: Evidence from Mutual Fund Trading," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 35(2), pages 866-897, June.
    35. Holden, Craig W. & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1994. "Risk aversion, imperfect competition, and long-lived information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 181-190.
    36. Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. "Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
    37. Foster, F Douglas & Viswanathan, S, 1996. "Strategic Trading When Agents Forecast the Forecasts of Others," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1437-1478, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yuan Yuan & Ye Meng, 2024. "The signalling role of the government‐market relationship in debt financing: Evidence from China," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(4), pages 667-686, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chang, Xiaochen & Guo, Songlin & Huang, Junkai, 2022. "Kidnapped mutual funds: Irrational preference of naive investors and fund incentive distortion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    2. Jiang, Hao & Verardo, Michela, 2013. "Does herding behavior reveal skill? An analysis of mutual fund performance," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119034, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Jing Xie, 2024. "Stock-Picking by Mutual Funds: Evidence from Trading in Family-Controlled Firms," Working Papers 202411, University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration.
    4. Klein, Olga & Klein, Daniel, 2024. "Institutional consensus after earnings announcements: Information or crowding?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    5. Artiga Gonzalez, Tanja & Dyakov, Teodor & Inhoffen, Justus & Wipplinger, Evert, 2024. "Crowding of international mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    6. Cai, Yu & Lau, Sie Ting, 2015. "Informed trading around earnings and mutual fund alphas," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 168-180.
    7. DeVault, Luke & Turtle, H.J. & Wang, Kainan, 2021. "Blessing or curse? Institutional investment in leveraged ETFs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    8. Bai, John Jianqiu & Tang, Yuehua & Wan, Chi & Yüksel, H. Zafer, 2022. "Fund manager skill in an era of globalization: Offshore concentration and fund performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 18-40.
    9. Lan, Chunhua & Moneta, Fabio & Wermers, Russ, 2018. "Holding Horizon: A New Measure of Active Investment Management," CFR Working Papers 15-06, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2018.
    10. Antoniou, Constantinos & Mitali, Shema F., 2023. "Do stock-level experienced returns influence security selection?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    11. Mohammad (Vahid) Irani & Hugh Hoikwang Kim, 2023. "The consequences of non‐trading institutional investors," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 433-481, September.
    12. Agarwal, Vikas & Mullally, Kevin & Tang, Yuehua & Yang, Baozhong, 2013. "Mandatory portfolio disclosure, stock liquidity, and mutual fund performance," CFR Working Papers 13-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    13. Mustafa O. Caglayan & Umut Celiker & Gokhan Sonaer, 2022. "Disagreement between hedge funds and other institutional investors and the cross‐section of expected stock returns," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 663-689, August.
    14. Doina Chichernea & Collin Gilstrap & Kershen Huang & Alex Petkevich, 2019. "Who Reacts to News?," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01), pages 1-43, March.
    15. Charlotte Christiansen & Ran Xing & Yue Xu, 2020. "Origins of Mutual Fund Skill: Market versus Accounting Based Asset Pricing Anomalies," CREATES Research Papers 2020-14, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    16. Jules Van Binsbergen & Jungsuk Han & Hongxun Ruan & Ran Xing, 2024. "A Horizon‐Based Decomposition of Mutual Fund Value Added Using Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(3), pages 1831-1882, June.
    17. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2013. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.2], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    18. Scott Bennett & David R Gallagher & Graham Harman & Geoffrey J Warren & Lihui Xi, 2016. "Alpha generation in portfolio management: Long-run Australian equity fund evidence," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(1), pages 107-140, February.
    19. Badhani, K.N. & Kumar, Ashish & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Tayde, Mangesh, 2023. "Do institutional investors perform better in emerging markets?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1041-1056.
    20. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2014. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.3], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Institutional investors; Informational advantages; Trading strategies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:68:y:2022:i:c:p:104-115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.