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Alpha momentum and alpha reversal in country and industry equity indexes

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  • Zaremba, Adam
  • Umutlu, Mehmet
  • Karathanasopoulos, Andreas

Abstract

Do past alphas predict future country and industry returns? Examination of equity indexes from 51 stock markets between 1973 and 2018 allows us to demonstrate new return patterns in the cross-section of country and industry returns. Past short-term (long-term) alphas positively (negatively) predict future returns. These phenomena can be translated into effective international equity allocation strategies, producing economically and statistically significant raw and risk-adjusted returns. The profitability is robust to many considerations, including alternative alpha models, the role of trading costs, different holding periods, or subsample analyses. Furthermore, the alpha momentum subsumes its return-based counterpart.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Alpha momentum and alpha reversal in country and industry equity indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 144-161.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:53:y:2019:i:c:p:144-161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2019.07.003
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    Cited by:

    1. Song, Jian & Balvers, Ronald J., 2022. "Seasonality and momentum across national equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    2. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, April.
    3. Umutlu, Mehmet & Yargı, Seher Gören, 2022. "To diversify or not to diversify internationally?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    4. Umutlu, Mehmet & Bengitöz, Pelin, 2020. "The cross-section of industry equity returns and global tactical asset allocation across regions and industries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    5. Daniel Hofmann & Karl Ludwig Keiber, 2021. "Seasonalities in the German stock market," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 35(2), pages 151-192, June.
    6. Umar, Zaghum & Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Mercik, Aleksander, 2024. "Interaction effects in the cross-section of country and industry returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    7. Alex R. Horenstein, 2021. "The Unintended Impact of Academic Research on Asset Returns: The Capital Asset Pricing Model Alpha," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(6), pages 3655-3673, June.
    8. Kim, Junyong, 2024. "Zoom in on momentum," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Alpha momentum; Alpha reversal; International investment; Country momentum; Country reversal; Industry momentum; Industry reversal; Asset pricing; The cross-section of returns return predictability; Equity anomalies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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