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Time-Varying Risk Premia in Large International Equity Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Langlois, Hugues
  • Chaieb, Ines
  • Scaillet, O.

Abstract

We estimate international factor models with time-varying factor exposures and risk premia at the individual stock level using a large unbalanced panel of 58,674 stocks in 46 countries over the 1985-2017 period. We consider market, size, value, momentum, profitability, and investment factors aggregated at the country, regional, and world level. The country market in excess of the world or regional market is required in addition to world or regional factors to capture the factor structure for both developed and emerging markets. We do not reject mixed CAPM models with regional and excess country market factors for 76% of the countries. We do not reject mixed multi-factor models in 80% to 94% of countries. Value and momentum premia show more variability over time and across countries than profitability and investment premia. The excess country market premium is statistically significant in many developed and emerging markets but economically larger in emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Langlois, Hugues & Chaieb, Ines & Scaillet, O., 2018. "Time-Varying Risk Premia in Large International Equity Markets," HEC Research Papers Series 1250, HEC Paris, revised 29 May 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebg:heccah:1250
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    Cited by:

    1. Tristan Jourde, 2022. "The Rising Interconnectedness of the Insurance Sector," Working papers 857, Banque de France.
    2. Fletcher, Jonathan, 2018. "Betas V characteristics: Do stock characteristics enhance the investment opportunity set in U.K. stock returns?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 114-129.
    3. Zaremba, Adam & Umutlu, Mehmet & Karathanasopoulos, Andreas, 2019. "Alpha momentum and alpha reversal in country and industry equity indexes," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 144-161.
    4. Diaz-Ruiz, Polux & Herrerias, Renata & Vasquez, Aurelio, 2020. "Anomalies in emerging markets: The case of Mexico," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    5. Dennis Umlandt, 2020. "Likelihood-based Dynamic Asset Pricing: Learning Time-varying Risk Premia from Cross-Sectional Models," Working Paper Series 2020-06, University of Trier, Research Group Quantitative Finance and Risk Analysis.
    6. Oldham, Matthew, 2020. "Quantifying the concerns of Dimon and Buffett with data and computation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Likai Chen & Ekaterina Smetanina & Wei Biao Wu, 2022. "Estimation of nonstationary nonparametric regression model with multiplicative structure [Income and wealth distribution in macroeconomics: A continuous-time approach]," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 25(1), pages 176-214.
    8. Ramelli, Stefano & Ossola, Elisa & Rancan, Michela, 2020. "Climate Sin Stocks: Stock Price Reactions to Global Climate Strikes," Working Papers 2020-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    large panel; approximate factor model; risk premium; international asset pricing; market integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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