IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v308y2023i1p455-466.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Copula sensitivity analysis for portfolio credit derivatives

Author

Listed:
  • Lei, Lei
  • Peng, Yijie
  • Fu, Michael C.
  • Hu, Jian-Qiang

Abstract

Modeling dependence among input random variables is often critical for performance evaluation of stochastic systems, and copulas provide one approach to model such dependence. In the financial industry, the dependence among default times of different assets drives the pricing of portfolio credit derivatives, including basket default swaps and collateralized debt obligations. Copula sensitivities provide information about how changes in the dependence level affect the output. We study sensitivity analysis of elliptical copulas and Archimedean copulas using infinitesimal perturbation analysis, and an unbiased estimators is derived using conditional Monte Carlo (CMC) to address discontinuities that arise in portfolio credit derivatives. In simulation experiments, the new estimators have smaller variance than other applicable methods.

Suggested Citation

  • Lei, Lei & Peng, Yijie & Fu, Michael C. & Hu, Jian-Qiang, 2023. "Copula sensitivity analysis for portfolio credit derivatives," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(1), pages 455-466.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:308:y:2023:i:1:p:455-466
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.10.031
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221722008190
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.10.031?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Matthias Fischer & Christian Kock & Stephan Schluter & Florian Weigert, 2009. "An empirical analysis of multivariate copula models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 839-854.
    2. Marius Hofert & Matthias Scherer, 2011. "CDO pricing with nested Archimedean copulas," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 775-787.
    3. Bernd Heidergott & Haralambie Leahu, 2010. "Weak Differentiability of Product Measures," Mathematics of Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 35(1), pages 27-51, February.
    4. Marco Geidosch & Matthias Fischer, 2016. "Application of Vine Copulas to Credit Portfolio Risk Modeling," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, June.
    5. L. Jeff Hong & Sandeep Juneja & Jun Luo, 2014. "Estimating Sensitivities of Portfolio Credit Risk Using Monte Carlo," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 848-865, November.
    6. Mark Joshi & Dherminder Kainth, 2004. "Rapid and accurate development of prices and Greeks for nth to default credit swaps in the Li model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 266-275.
    7. Zhiyong Chen & Paul Glasserman, 2008. "Sensitivity estimates for portfolio credit derivatives using Monte Carlo," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 507-540, October.
    8. Choe, Geon Ho & Jang, Hyun Jin, 2011. "Efficient algorithms for basket default swap pricing with multivariate Archimedean copulas," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 205-213, March.
    9. Okhrin, Ostap & Okhrin, Yarema & Schmid, Wolfgang, 2013. "On the structure and estimation of hierarchical Archimedean copulas," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 173(2), pages 189-204.
    10. Yang, Lu & Cai, Xiao Jing & Li, Mengling & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2015. "Modeling dependence structures among international stock markets: Evidence from hierarchical Archimedean copulas," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 308-314.
    11. John C. Hull, 2009. "The Credit Crunch of 2007: What Went Wrong? Why? What Lessons Can be Learned?," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Douglas D Evanoff & Philipp Hartmann & George G Kaufman (ed.), The First Credit Market Turmoil Of The 21st Century Implications for Public Policy, chapter 11, pages 161-174, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Rama Cont & Yu Hang Kan, 2011. "Dynamic hedging of portfolio credit derivatives," Post-Print hal-00578008, HAL.
    13. Frey, Rudiger & McNeil, Alexander J., 2002. "VaR and expected shortfall in portfolios of dependent credit risks: Conceptual and practical insights," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1317-1334, July.
    14. Achal Bassamboo & Sandeep Juneja & Assaf Zeevi, 2008. "Portfolio Credit Risk with Extremal Dependence: Asymptotic Analysis and Efficient Simulation," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 56(3), pages 593-606, June.
    15. Zhenyu Cui & Michael C. Fu & Jian-Qiang Hu & Yanchu Liu & Yijie Peng & Lingjiong Zhu, 2020. "On the Variance of Single-Run Unbiased Stochastic Derivative Estimators," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 32(2), pages 390-407, April.
    16. Tamakoshi, Go & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2014. "The conditional dependence structure of insurance sector credit default swap indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 122-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hengxin Cui & Ken Seng Tan & Fan Yang, 2024. "Portfolio credit risk with Archimedean copulas: asymptotic analysis and efficient simulation," Papers 2411.06640, arXiv.org.
    2. A. Ford Ramsey & Barry K. Goodwin, 2019. "Value-at-Risk and Models of Dependence in the U.S. Federal Crop Insurance Program," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-21, April.
    3. Guangwu Liu, 2015. "Simulating Risk Contributions of Credit Portfolios," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 63(1), pages 104-121, February.
    4. İsmail Başoğlu & Wolfgang Hörmann & Halis Sak, 2018. "Efficient simulations for a Bernoulli mixture model of portfolio credit risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 113-128, January.
    5. Ostap Okhrin & Anastasija Tetereva, 2017. "The Realized Hierarchical Archimedean Copula in Risk Modelling," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(2), pages 1-31, June.
    6. Alexakis, Christos & Pappas, Vasileios, 2018. "Sectoral dynamics of financial contagion in Europe - The cases of the recent crises episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 222-239.
    7. Ping Li & Ze†Zheng Li, 2015. "Change Analysis for the Dependence Structure and Dynamic Pricing of Basket Default Swaps," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 21(4), pages 646-671, September.
    8. Okhrin, Ostap & Xu, Ya Fei, 2017. "A comparison study of pricing credit default swap index tranches with convex combination of copulae," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-217.
    9. Mai Jan-Frederik, 2019. "Simulation algorithms for hierarchical Archimedean copulas beyond the completely monotone case," Dependence Modeling, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 202-214, January.
    10. Yong Ma & Zhengjun Zhang & Weiguo Zhang & Weidong Xu, 2015. "Evaluating the Default Risk of Bond Portfolios with Extreme Value Theory," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 45(4), pages 647-668, April.
    11. Górecki, Jan & Hofert, Marius & Okhrin, Ostap, 2021. "Outer power transformations of hierarchical Archimedean copulas: Construction, sampling and estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    12. Choe, Geon Ho & Choi, So Eun & Jang, Hyun Jin, 2020. "Assessment of time-varying systemic risk in credit default swap indices: Simultaneity and contagiousness," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Grothe, Oliver & Hofert, Marius, 2015. "Construction and sampling of Archimedean and nested Archimedean Lévy copulas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 182-198.
    14. Cossette, Hélène & Marceau, Etienne & Mtalai, Itre & Veilleux, Déry, 2018. "Dependent risk models with Archimedean copulas: A computational strategy based on common mixtures and applications," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 53-71.
    15. Phong Nguyen & Wei-han Liu, 2017. "Time-Varying Linkage of Possible Safe Haven Assets: A Cross-Market and Cross-asset Analysis," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 43-76, March.
    16. Marco Geidosch & Matthias Fischer, 2016. "Application of Vine Copulas to Credit Portfolio Risk Modeling," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-15, June.
    17. Penikas, Henry, 2014. "Investment portfolio risk modelling based on hierarchical copulas," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 35(3), pages 18-38.
    18. Yang, Lu & Yang, Lei & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2018. "Determinants of dependence structures of sovereign credit default swap spreads between G7 and BRICS countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 19-34.
    19. L. Jeff Hong & Sandeep Juneja & Jun Luo, 2014. "Estimating Sensitivities of Portfolio Credit Risk Using Monte Carlo," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 26(4), pages 848-865, November.
    20. Lin, Saiyan & Chen, Rongda & Lv, Zhihong & Zhou, Tianqing & Jin, Chenglu, 2019. "Integrated measurement of liquidity risk and market risk of company bonds based on the optimal Copula model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:308:y:2023:i:1:p:455-466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.