IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v303y2022i2p958-974.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Moving average options: Machine learning and Gauss-Hermite quadrature for a double non-Markovian problem

Author

Listed:
  • Goudenège, Ludovic
  • Molent, Andrea
  • Zanette, Antonino

Abstract

Evaluating moving average options is a tough computational challenge for the energy and commodity market as the payoff of the option depends on the prices of a certain underlying observed on a moving window so, when a long window is considered, the pricing problem becomes high dimensional. We present an efficient method for pricing Bermudan style moving average options, based on Gaussian Process Regression and Gauss-Hermite quadrature, thus named GPR-GHQ. Specifically, the proposed algorithm proceeds backward in time and, at each time-step, the continuation value is computed only in a few points by using Gauss-Hermite quadrature, and then it is learned through Gaussian Process Regression. We test the proposed approach in the Black-Scholes model, where the GPR-GHQ method is made even more efficient by exploiting the positive homogeneity of the continuation value, which allows one to reduce the problem size. Positive homogeneity is also exploited to develop a binomial Markov chain, which is able to deal efficiently with medium-long windows. Secondly, we test GPR-GHQ in the Clewlow-Strickland model, the reference framework for modeling prices of energy commodities. Then, we investigate the performance of the proposed method in the Heston model, which is a very popular model among the non-Gaussian ones. Finally, we consider a challenging problem which involves double non-Markovian feature, that is the rough-Bergomi model. In this case, the pricing problem is even harder since the whole history of the volatility process impacts the future distribution of the process. The manuscript includes a numerical investigation, which displays that GPR-GHQ is very accurate in pricing and computing the Greeks with respect to the Longstaff-Schwartz method and it is able to handle options with a very long window, thus overcoming the problem of high dimensionality.

Suggested Citation

  • Goudenège, Ludovic & Molent, Andrea & Zanette, Antonino, 2022. "Moving average options: Machine learning and Gauss-Hermite quadrature for a double non-Markovian problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(2), pages 958-974.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:303:y:2022:i:2:p:958-974
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2022.03.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377221722001783
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.03.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kenneth L. Judd, 1998. "Numerical Methods in Economics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262100711, April.
    2. Ling Lu & Wei Xu & Zhehui Qian, 2017. "Efficient willow tree method for European-style and American-style moving average barrier options pricing," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 889-906, June.
    3. Roger Lord & Remmert Koekkoek & Dick Van Dijk, 2010. "A comparison of biased simulation schemes for stochastic volatility models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 177-194.
    4. Wei Xu & Zhiwu Hong & Chenxiang Qin, 2013. "A new sampling strategy willow tree method with application to path-dependent option pricing," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(6), pages 861-872, May.
    5. Les Clewlow & Chris Strickland, 1999. "Valuing Energy Options in a One Factor Model Fitted to Forward Prices," Research Paper Series 10, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Heston, Steven L, 1993. "A Closed-Form Solution for Options with Stochastic Volatility with Applications to Bond and Currency Options," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 327-343.
    7. Mesias Alfeus & Christina Sklibosios Nikitopoulos, 2020. "Forecasting Commodity Markets Volatility: HAR or Rough?," Research Paper Series 415, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    8. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11984 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Christian Bayer & Raúl Tempone & Sören Wolfers, 2020. "Pricing American options by exercise rate optimization," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(11), pages 1749-1760, November.
    10. Dong, Wenfeng & Kang, Boda, 2019. "Analysis of a multiple year gas sales agreement with make-up, carry-forward and indexation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 76-96.
    11. Dai, Min & Li, Peifan & Zhang, Jin E., 2010. "A lattice algorithm for pricing moving average barrier options," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 542-554, March.
    12. Jan De Spiegeleer & Dilip B. Madan & Sofie Reyners & Wim Schoutens, 2018. "Machine learning for quantitative finance: fast derivative pricing, hedging and fitting," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(10), pages 1635-1643, October.
    13. W. Dong & B. Kang, 2021. "Evaluation of gas sales agreements with indexation using tree and least-squares Monte Carlo methods on graphics processing units," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 501-522, March.
    14. Chih‐Hao Kao & Yuh‐Dauh Lyuu, 2003. "Pricing of moving‐average‐type options with applications," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 415-440, May.
    15. Ludovic Goudenège & Andrea Molent & Antonino Zanette, 2020. "Machine learning for pricing American options in high-dimensional Markovian and non-Markovian models," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 573-591, April.
    16. Mark Broadie & Menghui Cao, 2008. "Improved lower and upper bound algorithms for pricing American options by simulation," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(8), pages 845-861.
    17. Gambaro, Anna Maria & Kyriakou, Ioannis & Fusai, Gianluca, 2020. "General lattice methods for arithmetic Asian options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 282(3), pages 1185-1199.
    18. Xavier Warin, 2012. "Hedging Swing contract on gas markets," Papers 1208.5303, arXiv.org.
    19. Christian Bayer & Peter Friz & Jim Gatheral, 2016. "Pricing under rough volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 887-904, June.
    20. Jérôme Lelong, 2019. "Pricing path-dependent Bermudan options using Wiener chaos expansion: an embarrassingly parallel approach," Working Papers hal-01983115, HAL.
    21. Nadarajah, Selvaprabu & Margot, François & Secomandi, Nicola, 2017. "Comparison of least squares Monte Carlo methods with applications to energy real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(1), pages 196-204.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ludovic Gouden`ege & Andrea Molent & Antonino Zanette, 2021. "Moving average options: Machine Learning and Gauss-Hermite quadrature for a double non-Markovian problem," Papers 2108.11141, arXiv.org.
    2. Dong, Wenfeng & Kang, Boda, 2019. "Analysis of a multiple year gas sales agreement with make-up, carry-forward and indexation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 76-96.
    3. Ling Lu & Wei Xu & Zhehui Qian, 2017. "Efficient willow tree method for European-style and American-style moving average barrier options pricing," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(6), pages 889-906, June.
    4. Etienne Chevalier & Sergio Pulido & Elizabeth Zúñiga, 2021. "American options in the Volterra Heston model," Working Papers hal-03178306, HAL.
    5. Etienne Chevalier & Sergio Pulido & Elizabeth Z'u~niga, 2021. "American options in the Volterra Heston model," Papers 2103.11734, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    6. Mike Ludkovski, 2020. "mlOSP: Towards a Unified Implementation of Regression Monte Carlo Algorithms," Papers 2012.00729, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    7. Etienne Chevalier & Sergio Pulido & Elizabeth Zúñiga, 2022. "American options in the Volterra Heston model," Post-Print hal-03178306, HAL.
    8. Brini, Alessio & Lenz, Jimmie, 2024. "Pricing cryptocurrency options with machine learning regression for handling market volatility," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Jingtang Ma & Wensheng Yang & Zhenyu Cui, 2021. "Semimartingale and continuous-time Markov chain approximation for rough stochastic local volatility models," Papers 2110.08320, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2021.
    10. Christian Bayer & Blanka Horvath & Aitor Muguruza & Benjamin Stemper & Mehdi Tomas, 2019. "On deep calibration of (rough) stochastic volatility models," Papers 1908.08806, arXiv.org.
    11. Xu, Wei & Šević, Aleksandar & Šević, Željko, 2022. "Implied volatility surface construction for commodity futures options traded in China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    12. Ludovic Goudenège & Andrea Molent & Antonino Zanette, 2021. "Gaussian process regression for pricing variable annuities with stochastic volatility and interest rate," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(1), pages 57-72, June.
    13. Simon Scheidegger & Adrien Treccani, 2021. "Pricing American Options under High-Dimensional Models with Recursive Adaptive Sparse Expectations [Telling from Discrete Data Whether the Underlying Continuous-Time Model Is a Diffusion]," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 258-290.
    14. Goodell, John W. & Kumar, Satish & Lim, Weng Marc & Pattnaik, Debidutta, 2021. "Artificial intelligence and machine learning in finance: Identifying foundations, themes, and research clusters from bibliometric analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    15. Alòs, Elisa & Antonelli, Fabio & Ramponi, Alessandro & Scarlatti, Sergio, 2023. "CVA in fractional and rough volatility models," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 442(C).
    16. Wei, Wei & Zhu, Dan, 2022. "Generic improvements to least squares monte carlo methods with applications to optimal stopping problems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 298(3), pages 1132-1144.
    17. Antoine Jacquier & Emma R. Malone & Mugad Oumgari, 2019. "Stacked Monte Carlo for option pricing," Papers 1903.10795, arXiv.org.
    18. Marcos Escobar‐Anel & Zhenxian Gong, 2020. "The mean‐reverting 4/2 stochastic volatility model: Properties and financial applications," Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(5), pages 836-856, September.
    19. Marcos Escobar-Anel & Weili Fan, 2023. "The SEV-SV Model—Applications in Portfolio Optimization," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34, January.
    20. Eduardo Abi Jaber, 2022. "The characteristic function of Gaussian stochastic volatility models: an analytic expression," Working Papers hal-02946146, HAL.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:303:y:2022:i:2:p:958-974. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.