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Reverse adaptive krill herd locally weighted support vector regression for forecasting and trading exchange traded funds

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  • Sermpinis, Georgios
  • Stasinakis, Charalampos
  • Hassanniakalager, Arman

Abstract

This study introduces a Reverse Adaptive Krill Herd-Locally Weighted Support Vector Regression (RKH-LSVR) model. The Reverse Adaptive Krill Herd (RKH) algorithm is a novel metaheuristic optimization technique inspired by the behavior of krill herds. In RKH-LSVR, the RKH optimizes the locally weighted Support Vector Regression (LSVR) parameters by balancing the search between local and global optima. The proposed model is applied to the task of forecasting and trading six ETF stocks on a daily basis over the period 2010–2015. The RKH-LSVR's efficiency is benchmarked against a set of traditional SVR structures and simple linear and non-linear models. The trading application is designed in order to validate the robustness of the algorithm under study and to provide empirical evidence in favor of or against the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). In terms of the results, the RKH-LSVR outperforms its counterparts in terms of statistical accuracy and trading efficiency, while the time varying trading performance of the models under study validates the AMH theory.

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  • Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Hassanniakalager, Arman, 2017. "Reverse adaptive krill herd locally weighted support vector regression for forecasting and trading exchange traded funds," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 540-558.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:263:y:2017:i:2:p:540-558
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2017.06.019
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gary S. Anderson & Alena Audzeyeva, 2019. "A Coherent Framework for Predicting Emerging Market Credit Spreads with Support Vector Regression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Jinchai Lin & Kaiwei Zhu & Zhen Liu & Jenny Lieu & Xianchun Tan, 2019. "Study on A Simple Model to Forecast the Electricity Demand under China’s New Normal Situation," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-28, June.
    4. Mingzhe Wei & Georgios Sermpinis & Charalampos Stasinakis, 2023. "Forecasting and trading Bitcoin with machine learning techniques and a hybrid volatility/sentiment leverage," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 852-871, July.
    5. Kang, Haijun & Zong, Xiangyu & Wang, Jianyong & Chen, Haonan, 2023. "Binary gravity search algorithm and support vector machine for forecasting and trading stock indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 507-526.
    6. Filipa Fernandes & Charalampos Stasinakis & Zivile Zekaite, 2019. "Forecasting government bond spreads with heuristic models: evidence from the Eurozone periphery," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 282(1), pages 87-118, November.

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