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Obesity persistence and duration dependence: Evidence from a cohort of US adults (1985–2010)

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  • Daouli, Joan
  • Davillas, Apostolos
  • Demoussis, Michael
  • Giannakopoulos, Nicholas

Abstract

This study investigates dynamic patterns of obesity persistence and identifies the determinants of obesity-spell exits and re-entries. We utilize longitudinal data from the NLSY79 covering the period 1985–2010. Non-parametric techniques are applied to investigate the relationship between exit from obesity and spell duration. Multivariate discrete hazard models are also estimated, taking into account duration dependence and observed and time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity. In all cases, the probability of exiting obesity is inversely related to the duration of the obesity spell. Without controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, the probability of exit after one wave in obesity is 31.5 per cent; it is reduced to 3.8 per cent after seven or more waves. When time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity is taken into account, the estimated probabilities are slightly larger and broadly similar (36.8 and 10.3, respectively), which suggests that the identified negative duration dependence is not primarily due to composition effects. The obtained results indicate that public health interventions targeting the newly obese may be particularly effective at reducing incidence of long durations of obesity.

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  • Daouli, Joan & Davillas, Apostolos & Demoussis, Michael & Giannakopoulos, Nicholas, 2014. "Obesity persistence and duration dependence: Evidence from a cohort of US adults (1985–2010)," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 30-44.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ehbiol:v:12:y:2014:i:c:p:30-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ehb.2013.07.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Millimet, Daniel L. & Tchernis, Rusty, 2015. "Persistence in body mass index in a recent cohort of US children," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 157-176.
    2. Cavaco, Sandra & Eriksson, Tor & Skalli, Ali, 2014. "Life cycle development of obesity and its determinants in six European countries," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 62-78.
    3. Madden, David, 2020. "BMI mobility and obesity transitions among children in Ireland," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    4. Théophile T Azomahou & Bity Diene & Adrien Gosselin-Pali, 2021. "Transition and persistence in the double burden of malnutrition and obesity : Evidence from South Africa," Working Papers hal-03338304, HAL.
    5. Watson, Barry & Daley, Angela & Rohde, Nicholas & Osberg, Lars, 2020. "Blown off-course? Weight gain among the economically insecure during the great recession," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Azomahou, Théophile T. & Diene, Bity & Gosselin-Pali, Adrien, 2022. "Transition and persistence in the double burden of malnutrition and overweight or obesity: Evidence from South Africa," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Guariglia, Alessandra & Monahan, Mark & Pickering, Karen & Roberts, Tracy, 2021. "Financial health and obesity," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 276(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Obesity; Obesity persistence: Duration dependence; Obesity spells; Hazard models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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