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Information-based contagion and the implications for financial fragility

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  • Manz, Michael

Abstract

This paper explores a global game model of information-based financial contagion. By revealing information on a common fundamental factor and thereby affecting the behavior of creditors, the failure of a single firm can trigger the failure of another firm. The model provides a unique equilibrium framework to assess the consequences of contagion and yields some hitherto unnoticed insights. While contagion increases the correlation among the financial failures of different firms, its impact on the incidence of failure is ambiguous. I consider an analytically tractable version of the model in which the effect on the ex ante failure probabilities is exactly zero. Moreover, the impact of contagion increases with the relevance of a common underlying fundamental, but is limited to firms near the brink of success or failure.

Suggested Citation

  • Manz, Michael, 2010. "Information-based contagion and the implications for financial fragility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 900-910, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:54:y:2010:i:7:p:900-910
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    3. Cong, Lin William & Grenadier, Steven R. & Hu, Yunzhi, 2020. "Dynamic interventions and informational linkages," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 1-15.
    4. Oh, Frederick Dongchuhl, 2013. "Contagion of a liquidity crisis between two firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 386-400.
    5. Tao Xu & Jianmin He & Shouwei Li, 2016. "Multi-Channel Contagion In Dynamic Interbank Market Network," Advances in Complex Systems (ACS), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 19(06n07), pages 1-25, September.
    6. Tabak, Benjamin M. & de Castro Miranda, Rodrigo & da Silva Medeiros, Maurício, 2016. "Contagion in CDS, banking and equity markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 120-134.
    7. Martin Geiger & Richard Hule, 2019. "Correlation and coordination risk," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 155-177, June.
    8. Martin Geiger & Richard Hule, 2016. "Correlation and coordination risk," Working Papers 2016-19, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    9. Biswas, Swarnava S. & Gómez, Fabiana, 2018. "Contagion through common borrowers," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 125-132.
    10. Isabel Trevino, 2020. "Informational Channels of Financial Contagion," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(1), pages 297-335, January.
    11. Ryuichiro Izumi & Antonis Kotidis & Paul E. Soto, 2024. "Trademarks in Banking," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2024-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    12. Louis RAFFESTIN, 2021. "Uncertainty as a vector of financial contagion: how does it work, and how much does it matter?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2881, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    13. Oh, Frederick Dongchuhl & Park, Junghum, 2023. "A large creditor in contagious liquidity crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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