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European monetary union or hard EMS?

Author

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  • Currie, David
  • Levine, Paul
  • Pearlman, Joseph

Abstract

This paper contributes to the debate engendered by the Delors Report on the issue of European Monetary Union. It focuses on the options of a strengthened (or hard-) EMS, with a commitment to a fixed exchange rate relative to the Deutschmark, or a European central bank with full monetary union (EMU). Under hard-EMS, an anti-inflationary reputation is acquired by all as a result of Bundesbank credibility. As regards EMU, it is possible that too rapid a move through the latter stages of the Delors process will produce a central bank with little or no anti-inflation credibility. Here we make starkest assumption of no credibility under EMU, and compare it with hard-EMS for various supply and demand shocks using a two-bloc model, the latter exhibiting short-run wage/price stickiness but with long run natural rate properties. A non-EMS regime with floating exchange rates is used to examine the incentive compatibility of hard-EMS and EMU, with a cooperative reputational regime acting as a benchmark.
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Suggested Citation

  • Currie, David & Levine, Paul & Pearlman, Joseph, 1992. "European monetary union or hard EMS?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1185-1204, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:36:y:1992:i:6:p:1185-1204
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    Cited by:

    1. Henri Sterdyniak & Pierre Villa, 1993. "Régimes de change et coordination des politiques économiques en Europe," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 307-348.
    2. Patrick Artus, 1992. "Passage à l'union économique et monétaire en Europe : effets sur la croissance et les politiques budgétaires," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 106(5), pages 123-137.
    3. van Aarle, B. & Engwerda, J.C. & Plasmans, J.E.J. & Weeren, A.J.T.M., 1999. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Design under EMU : A Dynamic Game Approach," Other publications TiSEM 0848f398-41bb-4e43-b83e-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5265 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Bas Van Aarle & Jacob Engwerda & Joseph Plasmans & Arie Weeren, 2001. "Macroeconomic Policy Interaction under EMU: A Dynamic Game Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 29-60, January.
    6. Jeffrey A. Frankel and Norbert Funke., 1994. "A Two-Country Analysis of International Targeting of Nominal GNP," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-035, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Jay Bryson, 1994. "Macroeconomic stabilization through monetary and fiscal policy coordination: Implications for European Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 307-326, October.
    8. Andrew Brociner, 1993. "L'Union monétaire européenne : une revue de la littérature théorique," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 349-363.
    9. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Ella Kavanagh, 2001. "Inflation Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: What Happens When Countries Differ in Size?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 145-161, April.
    10. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5265 is not listed on IDEAS

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