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Does deterrence change preferences? Evidence from a natural experiment

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  • Cavatorta, Elisa
  • Groom, Ben

Abstract

The deterrent effects of counter-violence initiatives could backfire if they cause preferences to change so that the perceived gains from violent actions increase. We test the preference-change hypothesis in a quasi-experimental design exploiting the random location of segments of the wall between the West Bank and Israel, an initiative intended to deter armed resistance. We undertake incentivised decision tasks with Palestinians to measure key individual traits that determine the valuation of political actions: preferences for risk, uncertainty and time delay. We show that people living close to the wall become more risk-tolerant, ambiguity averse and impatient than those unexposed to the wall, and this effect is amplified for people both exposed to and isolated (from the West Bank) by the wall. Preference-change could explain how repressive initiatives appear to perpetuate cycles of violence and resistance.

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  • Cavatorta, Elisa & Groom, Ben, 2020. "Does deterrence change preferences? Evidence from a natural experiment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:127:y:2020:i:c:s001429212030088x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2020.103456
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    3. Mattauch, Linus & Hepburn, Cameron & Spuler, Fiona & Stern, Nicholas, 2022. "The economics of climate change with endogenous preferences," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Cavatorta, Elisa & Zizzo, Daniel John & Daoud, Yousef, 2023. "Conflict and reciprocity: A study with Palestinian youths," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Marco Angrisani & Marco Cipriani & Antonio Guarino & Ryan Kendall & Julen Ortiz de Zarate Pina, 2020. "Risk Preferences at the Time of COVID-19: An Experiment with Professional Traders and Students," Staff Reports 927, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    6. repec:jdm:journl:v:17:y:2022:i:4:p:745-767 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Anwesha Bandyopadhyay & Lutfunnahar Begum & Philip J. Grossman, 2021. "Gender differences in the stability of risk attitudes," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 63(2), pages 169-201, October.

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