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Light cannabis and organized crime: Evidence from (unintended) liberalization in Italy

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  • Carrieri, Vincenzo
  • Madio, Leonardo
  • Principe, Francesco

Abstract

This paper explores the unintended liberalization of light cannabis that occurred in Italy in December 2016 by means of a legislative gap in order to assess its effect on the illegal supply of marijuana. Although liberalization interested the entire Italian territory, in the short run, the level of intensity varied according to the pre-liberalization market configuration of grow shops, i.e., retailers that sold industrial cannabis-related products. We exploit this variation using a differences-in-differences (DID) design with a unique dataset on monthly confiscations of drugs at the province level during 2016–2018, which is matched with data on the geographical location of shops and socio-demographic variables. We find that the liberalization of light cannabis led to a reduction of up to 14% in marijuana confiscations per each pre-existing grow shop and a significant decrease in both other cannabis-derived drugs and in the number of people arrested for drug-related offences. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that forgone revenue for criminal organizations amount to at least 90–170 million euros per year. These results support the argument that the supply of illegal drugs is displaced by the entry of official and legal retailers.

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  • Carrieri, Vincenzo & Madio, Leonardo & Principe, Francesco, 2019. "Light cannabis and organized crime: Evidence from (unintended) liberalization in Italy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 63-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:113:y:2019:i:c:p:63-76
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2019.01.003
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    3. Auriol, Emmanuelle & Mesnard, Alice & Perrault, Tiffanie, 2023. "Weeding out the dealers? The economics of cannabis legalization," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 216(C), pages 62-101.
    4. Xiuming Dong & Justin Tyndall, 2024. "The impact of recreational marijuana dispensaries on crime: evidence from a lottery experiment," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 72(4), pages 1383-1414, April.
    5. Eric L. Sevigny & Rosalie L. Pacula & Ariel M. Aloe & Danye N. Medhin & Jared Greathouse, 2021. "PROTOCOL: The effects of cannabis liberalization laws on health, safety, and socioeconomic outcomes: An evidence and gap map," Campbell Systematic Reviews, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 17(1), March.
    6. Andrikopoulos, Panagiotis & Gebka, Bartosz & Kallinterakis, Vasileios, 2021. "Regulatory mood-congruence and herding: Evidence from cannabis stocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 842-864.
    7. Madio, Leonardo & Principe, Francesco, 2023. "Who supports liberal policies? A tale of two referendums in Italy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 232(C).
    8. Chakraborty Avinandan & Doremus Jacqueline & Stith Sarah, 2021. "The effects of recreational cannabis access on labor markets: evidence from Colorado," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 10(1), pages 1-86, January.
    9. Mike Langen & Erdal Aydin & Piet Eichholtz & Nils Kok, 2022. "Getting high or getting low? the external effects of coffeeshops on house prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(2), pages 565-592, June.
    10. Davide Fortin, 2023. "Light cannabis as a substitute for addictive substances: A cross-sectional analysis of survey data in France and Italy," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2023 10, Stata Users Group.
    11. Atella, Vincenzo & Braione, Manuela & Ferrara, Giancarlo & Resce, Giuliano, 2023. "Cohesion Policy Funds and local government autonomy: Evidence from Italian municipalities," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PB).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cannabis; Marijuana light; Crime; Illegal market; Diff-in-diff;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K23 - Law and Economics - - Regulation and Business Law - - - Regulated Industries and Administrative Law
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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