IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecosys/v48y2024i4s0939362524000347.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's risk contagion using the mixed-frequency macro-financial network

Author

Listed:
  • Jiang, Cuixia
  • Gao, Haijing
  • Xu, Qifa

Abstract

We explore and compare the fundamental laws of risk contagion under different shocks during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic periods. Using the daily returns of financial market indices and the monthly growth rates of macroeconomic data for two periods, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2010, and from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021, we construct a macro-financial network with the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) method to produce well-defined measures of intra-system and cross-system risk contagion. We investigate the differences in risk contagion under different types of major events using an event study model. The empirical results show that the financial system is the center of risk contagion. Regarding the direction of the cross-system risk contagion, the risk contagion from the financial to the macroeconomic system dominates the contagion in the opposite direction. The impacts of financial and pandemic shocks on the macro-financial risk contagion differ significantly. Importantly, both investor sentiment and consumer confidence mediate these impacts, providing useful insights into the prevention of risk contagion.

Suggested Citation

  • Jiang, Cuixia & Gao, Haijing & Xu, Qifa, 2024. "China's risk contagion using the mixed-frequency macro-financial network," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(4).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:48:y:2024:i:4:s0939362524000347
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101212
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362524000347
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101212?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    2. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    3. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    4. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn & Michailidis, George, 2019. "Interconnectedness in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 520-538.
    5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    6. Yuliya Demyanyk & Otto Van Hemert, 2011. "Understanding the Subprime Mortgage Crisis," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(6), pages 1848-1880.
    7. Ghysels, Eric & Hill, Jonathan B. & Motegi, Kaiji, 2016. "Testing for Granger causality with mixed frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 207-230.
    8. Heyden, Kim J. & Heyden, Thomas, 2021. "Market reactions to the arrival and containment of COVID-19: An event study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    9. Su, Xianfang, 2020. "Measuring extreme risk spillovers across international stock markets: A quantile variance decomposition analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    10. Chiu, Wan-Chien & Peña, Juan Ignacio & Wang, Chih-Wei, 2015. "Industry characteristics and financial risk contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 411-427.
    11. Chen, Na & Jin, Xiu, 2020. "Industry risk transmission channels and the spillover effects of specific determinants in China’s stock market: A spatial econometrics approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Tsagkanos, Athanasios & Vortelinos, Dimitrios I., 2019. "Integration and risk contagion in financial crises: Evidence from international stock markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 350-365.
    13. Hausenblas, Václav & Kubicová, Ivana & Lešanovská, Jitka, 2015. "Contagion risk in the Czech financial system: A network analysis and simulation approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 156-180.
    14. Nevrla, Matěj, 2020. "Systemic risk in European financial and energy sectors: Dynamic factor copula approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).
    15. Venkat Kuppuswamy & Belén Villalonga, 2016. "Does Diversification Create Value in the Presence of External Financing Constraints? Evidence from the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(4), pages 905-923, April.
    16. Chen, Shimin & Sun, Zheng & Tang, Song & Wu, Donghui, 2011. "Government intervention and investment efficiency: Evidence from China," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 259-271, April.
    17. John Cotter & Mark Hallam & Kamil Yilmaz, 2017. "Mixed-frequency macro-financial spillovers," Working Papers 201704, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
    18. Augustin, Patrick & Sokolovski, Valeri & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tomio, Davide, 2022. "In sickness and in debt: The COVID-19 impact on sovereign credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(3), pages 1251-1274.
    19. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    20. Yue-Jun Zhang & Shu-Hui Li, 2019. "The impact of investor sentiment on crude oil market risks: evidence from the wavelet approach," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(8), pages 1357-1371, August.
    21. Dungey, Mardi & Milunovich, George & Thorp, Susan, 2010. "Unobservable shocks as carriers of contagion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 1008-1021, May.
    22. Naidu, Dharmendra & Ranjeeni, Kumari, 2021. "Effect of coronavirus fear on the performance of Australian stock returns: Evidence from an event study," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    23. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Wang, Jian & Lu, Yang, 2020. "Connectedness and systemic risk spillovers analysis of Chinese sectors based on tail risk network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    24. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    25. Hudson, Robert S. & Gregoriou, Andros, 2015. "Calculating and comparing security returns is harder than you think: A comparison between logarithmic and simple returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 151-162.
    26. Cotter, John & Hallam, Mark & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2023. "Macro-financial spillovers," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wei, Yu & Wang, Zhuo & Zhou, Xiaorui & Shang, Yue & Ren, Lin, 2024. "Are the leading indicators really leading? Evidence from mixed-frequency spillover approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Foglia, Matteo & Addi, Abdelhamid & Wang, Gang-Jin & Angelini, Eliana, 2022. "Bearish Vs Bullish risk network: A Eurozone financial system analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    2. Uluceviz, Erhan & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2021. "Measuring real–financial connectedness in the U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Boeckelmann Lukas & Stalla-Bourdillon Arthur, 2021. "Structural Estimation of Time-Varying Spillovers: An Application to International Credit Risk Transmission," Working papers 798, Banque de France.
    4. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Lovcha, Yuliya & Perez-Laborda, Alejandro, 2020. "Dynamic frequency connectedness between oil and natural gas volatilities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 181-189.
    6. Dang, Tam Hoang Nhat & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Gabauer, David & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha, 2024. "Sectoral uncertainty spillovers in emerging markets: A quantile time–frequency connectedness approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 121-139.
    7. Shi Chen & Wolfgang Karl Hardle & Brenda L'opez Cabrera, 2020. "Regularization Approach for Network Modeling of German Power Derivative Market," Papers 2009.09739, arXiv.org.
    8. Jena, Sangram Keshari & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2022. "The connectedness in the world petroleum futures markets using a Quantile VAR approach," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    9. Wang, Gang-Jin & Chen, Yang-Yang & Si, Hui-Bin & Xie, Chi & Chevallier, Julien, 2021. "Multilayer information spillover networks analysis of China’s financial institutions based on variance decompositions," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 325-347.
    10. Brož, Václav & Kočenda, Evžen, 2022. "Mortgage-related bank penalties and systemic risk among U.S. banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. Ozcan Ceylan, 2023. "Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness among Sovereign CDS Premia," World Journal of Applied Economics, WERI-World Economic Research Institute, vol. 9(1), pages 33-47, June.
    12. Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Commodity Connectedness," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Enrique G. Mendoza & Ernesto Pastén & Diego Saravia (ed.),Monetary Policy and Global Spillovers: Mechanisms, Effects and Policy Measures, edition 1, volume 25, chapter 4, pages 097-136, Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Jozef Barunik & Mattia Bevilacqua & Radu Tunaru, 2022. "Asymmetric Network Connectedness of Fears," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(6), pages 1304-1316, November.
    14. Zaghum Umar & Oluwasegun Babatunde Adekoya & Mariya Gubareva & Sabri Boubaker, 2024. "Returns and volatility connectedness among the Eurozone equity markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3103-3122, July.
    15. Manuela Pedio, 2021. "Option-Implied Network Measures of Tail Contagion and Stock Return Predictability," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21154, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Hsu, Chih-Hsiang & Lee, Hsiu-Chuan & Lien, Donald, 2020. "Stock market uncertainty, volatility connectedness of financial institutions, and stock-bond return correlations," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 600-621.
    17. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Caliskan Terzioglu, Hande & Kilic, Yunus & Bugan, Mehmet Fatih & Dibooglu, Sel, 2024. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk: Evidence from global stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. He, Xie & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Is volatility spillover enough for investor decisions? A new viewpoint from higher moments," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    19. Nong, Huifu & Yu, Ziliang & Li, Yang, 2024. "Financial shock transmission in China's banking and housing sectors: A network analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 701-723.
    20. Mert Demirer & Francis X. Diebold & Laura Liu & Kamil Yilmaz, 2018. "Estimating global bank network connectedness," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-15, January.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:48:y:2024:i:4:s0939362524000347. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/osteide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.