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Contagion Risk in the Czech Financial System: A Network Analysis and Simulation Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Vaclav Hausenblas
  • Ivana Kubicova
  • Jitka Lesanovska

Abstract

This paper examines the potential for contagion within the Czech banking system via the channel of interbank exposures of domestic banks enriched by a liquidity channel and an asset price channel over the period March 2007 to June 2012. A computational model is used to assess the resilience of the Czech banking system to interbank contagion, taking into account the size and structure of interbank exposures as well as balance sheet and regulatory characteristics of individual banks in the network. The simulation results suggest that the potential for contagion due to credit losses on interbank exposures was rather limited. Even after the introduction of a liquidity condition into the simulations, the average contagion was below 3.8% of the remaining banking sector assets, with the exception of the period from December 2007 to September 2008. Activation of the asset price channel further increases the losses due to interbank contagion, showing that liquidity of government bonds would be essential for the stability of Czech banks in stress situations. Finally, the simulation results for both idiosyncratic and multiple bank failure shocks suggest that the potential for contagion in the Czech banking system has decreased since the onset of the global financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Vaclav Hausenblas & Ivana Kubicova & Jitka Lesanovska, 2012. "Contagion Risk in the Czech Financial System: A Network Analysis and Simulation Approach," Working Papers 2012/14, Czech National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2012/14
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Bing & Li, Li & Peng, Fei & Anwar, Sajid, 2020. "Risk contagion in the banking network: New evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Hong Fan & Allan Alvin Lee Lukaya Amalia & Qian Qian Gao, 2018. "The Assessment of Systemic Risk in the Kenyan Banking Sector," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-15, January.
    3. Matteo Serri & Guido Caldarelli & Giulio Cimini, 2016. "How the interbank market becomes systemically dangerous: an agent-based network model of financial distress propagation," Papers 1611.04311, arXiv.org.
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    10. Josef Brechler & Vaclav Hausenblas & Zlatuse Komarkova & Miroslav Plasil, 2014. "Similarity and Clustering of Banks: Application to the Credit Exposures of the Czech Banking Sector," Research and Policy Notes 2014/04, Czech National Bank.
    11. Pawe{l} Smaga & Mateusz Wili'nski & Piotr Ochnicki & Piotr Arendarski & Tomasz Gubiec, 2016. "Can banks default overnight? Modeling endogenous contagion on O/N interbank market," Papers 1603.05142, arXiv.org.
    12. Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Elias & Kenourgios, Dimitris, 2020. "Machine learning as an early warning system to predict financial crisis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. repec:cnb:ocpubv:rb14/2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Samitas, Aristeidis & Kampouris, Elias & Polyzos, Stathis, 2022. "Covid-19 pandemic and spillover effects in stock markets: A financial network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    15. Silva, Walmir & Kimura, Herbert & Sobreiro, Vinicius Amorim, 2017. "An analysis of the literature on systemic financial risk: A survey," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 91-114.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Contagion; financial crisis; interbank market; market structure.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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