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PPP may hold better than you think: Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion in real effective exchange rates

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  • Kutan, Ali M.
  • Zhou, Su

Abstract

This paper revisits some key topics in the literature on purchasing power parity (PPP). The study applies a set of newly developed unit root tests, which account for both nonlinearity and multiple smooth temporary breaks in series, to the real effective exchange rates (REERs) of 23 developed countries. The results suggest that PPP generally holds for various currency-based real rates. There is evidence in favor of linear stationarity in REERs for highly integrated economies. The REERs of most other countries tend to have nonlinear adjustment toward large long-swing type mean changes around constant equilibrium values.

Suggested Citation

  • Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2015. "PPP may hold better than you think: Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion in real effective exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 358-366.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecosys:v:39:y:2015:i:2:p:358-366
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2014.12.001
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    4. Niri Martha Choji* & Siok Kun Sek, 2018. "Investigating the PPP Theory and Long-run Estimates for Five Asian Countries," The Journal of Social Sciences Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, pages 237-242:2.
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    6. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsieh, Chun-Kuei, 2021. "Facing up to the polysemy of purchasing power parity: New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 247-265.
    7. Tie‐Ying Liu & Chien‐Chiang Lee, 2022. "Exchange rate fluctuations and interest rate policy," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3531-3549, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    PPP; Real effective exchange rates; Nonlinear stationarity; Smooth structural breaks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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