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The Nature of Persistence in Turkish Real Exchange Rates

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  • HALUK ERLAT

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to investigate the persistence in Turkish real exchange rates (RER) using unit root tests and autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) models. We consider two RERs, one in terms of the German DM and the other, in terms of the US$. The plots of these RERs (based on both wholesale price indices and consumer price indices) for the period 1984.01-2000.09 reveal that they contain multiple shifts in their deterministic terms, one of which may need to be treated as an outlier for some of the series. Hence, when this aspect is taken into account in both the unit root tests and the ARFIMA models, we find strong evidence of stationarity in almost all series, together with significant long-memory components. These findings, then, support the validity of the absolute version of the "quasi" purchasing power parity hypothesis for Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Haluk Erlat, 2003. "The Nature of Persistence in Turkish Real Exchange Rates," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 70-97, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:39:y:2003:i:2:p:70-97
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Saadet Kasman & Adnan Kasman & Duygu Ayhan, 2010. "Testing the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis for the New Member and Candidate Countries of the European Union: Evidence from Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Tests with Structural Breaks," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(2), pages 53-65, March.
    3. Ali M. Kutan & Su Zhou, 2008. "The Enlargement of the European Union and the Behavior of Real Exchange Rates," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 550-561, August.
    4. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    5. Tastan Huseyin, 2005. "Do real exchange rates contain a unit root? Evidence from Turkish data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 2037-2053.
    6. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2009:i:029 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Thomas L Bradley & Paul B Eberle, 2023. "Purchasing Power Parity In Russia And The Transitioning Economy 1990-1995," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 31, pages 85-111, June.
    8. Kutan, Ali M. & Zhou, Su, 2015. "PPP may hold better than you think: Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion in real effective exchange rates," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 358-366.
    9. Ceyhun Can Ozcan & Ahmet Sahbaz & Ugur Ad?guzel & Saban Nazlioglu, 2014. "The Nature of Shocks to Turkish exchange rates: what panel approach says?," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0401591, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    10. Zhou, Su & Kutan, Ali M., 2011. "Is the evidence for PPP reliable? A sustainability examination of the stationarity of real exchange rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2479-2490, September.
    11. Gómez Aguirre Mario & Rodríguez Chávez José Carlos, 2013. "El efecto Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson. El caso de México," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 58(3), pages 121-147, julio-sep.
    12. Faruk Selçuk, 2005. "The Policy Challenge with Floating Exchange Rates: Turkey’s Recent Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 295-312, July.
    13. Ahmet Can Ýnci, 2007. "Currency and yield Co-integration between a developed and an emerging Country: The Case of Turkey," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 21(1+2), pages 1-20.
    14. Mario Gómez Aguirre & José Carlos A. Rodríguez Chávez, 2012. "Análisis de la paridad del poder de compra: evidencia empírica entre México y Estados Unidos," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 169-207.
    15. Mücahit Aydın, 2019. "Investigation of the Validity of Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis with Fourier Unit Root Tests: The Case of Turkey," EKOIST Journal of Econometrics and Statistics, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 30(0), pages 35-48, June.
    16. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsieh, Chun-Kuei, 2021. "Facing up to the polysemy of purchasing power parity: New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 247-265.
    17. Adiguzel, Ugur & Sahbaz, Ahmet & Ozcan, Ceyhun Can & Nazlioglu, Saban, 2014. "The behavior of Turkish exchange rates: A panel data perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 177-185.
    18. Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Gokmenoglu, Korhan & Ekinci, Cagdas, 2013. "Persistence in crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 29-37.

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