IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v156y2010i2p322-336.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Additive cubic spline regression with Dirichlet process mixture errors

Author

Listed:
  • Chib, Siddhartha
  • Greenberg, Edward

Abstract

The goal of this article is to develop a flexible Bayesian analysis of regression models for continuous and categorical outcomes. In the models we study, covariate (or regression) effects are modeled additively by cubic splines, and the error distribution (that of the latent outcomes in the case of categorical data) is modeled as a Dirichlet process mixture. We employ a relatively unexplored but attractive basis in which the spline coefficients are the unknown function ordinates at the knots. We exploit this feature to develop a proper prior distribution on the coefficients that involves the first and second differences of the ordinates, quantities about which one may have prior knowledge. We also discuss the problem of comparing models with different numbers of knots or different error distributions through marginal likelihoods and Bayes factors which are computed within the framework of Chib (1995) as extended to DPM models by Basu and Chib (2003). The techniques are illustrated with simulated and real data.

Suggested Citation

  • Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 2010. "Additive cubic spline regression with Dirichlet process mixture errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(2), pages 322-336, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:156:y:2010:i:2:p:322-336
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-4076(09)00291-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
    2. Villani, Mattias & Kohn, Robert & Giordani, Paolo, 2007. "Nonparametric Regression Density Estimation Using Smoothly Varying Normal Mixtures," Working Paper Series 211, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Tiwari, R C & Jammalamadaka, S R & Chib, Siddhartha, 1988. "Bayes Prediction Density and Regression Estimation--A Semiparametric Approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3/4), pages 209-222.
    4. Basu S. & Chib S., 2003. "Marginal Likelihood and Bayes Factors for Dirichlet Process Mixture Models," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 98, pages 224-235, January.
    5. Keisuke Hirano, 2002. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference in Autoregressive Panel Data Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(2), pages 781-799, March.
    6. Geweke, John & Keane, Michael, 2007. "Smoothly mixing regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 138(1), pages 252-290, May.
    7. David B. Dunson & Natesh Pillai & Ju‐Hyun Park, 2007. "Bayesian density regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 163-183, April.
    8. M. Vannucci & F. Corradi, 1999. "Covariance structure of wavelet coefficients: theory and models in a Bayesian perspective," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 61(4), pages 971-986.
    9. Chib S. & Jeliazkov I., 2001. "Marginal Likelihood From the Metropolis-Hastings Output," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 96, pages 270-281, March.
    10. Chib, Siddhartha & Hamilton, Barton H., 2002. "Semiparametric Bayes analysis of longitudinal data treatment models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 67-89, September.
    11. James H. Albert & Siddhartha Chib, 2001. "Sequential Ordinal Modeling with Applications to Survival Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(3), pages 829-836, September.
    12. Altman, Edward I. & Rijken, Herbert A., 2004. "How rating agencies achieve rating stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2679-2714, November.
    13. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Christos Merkatas & Simo Särkkä, 2023. "System identification using autoregressive Bayesian neural networks with nonparametric noise models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 319-330, May.
    2. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Anna Simoni, 2022. "Bayesian estimation and comparison of conditional moment models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 84(3), pages 740-764, July.
    3. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Risk, Return and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, September.
    4. Manuel Wiesenfarth & Carlos Matías Hisgen & Thomas Kneib & Carmen Cadarso-Suarez, 2014. "Bayesian Nonparametric Instrumental Variables Regression Based on Penalized Splines and Dirichlet Process Mixtures," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 468-482, July.
    5. Jin, Xin & Maheu, John M., 2016. "Bayesian semiparametric modeling of realized covariance matrices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 19-39.
    6. Huaiye Zhang & Inyoung Kim & Chun Gun Park, 2014. "Semiparametric Bayesian hierarchical models for heterogeneous population in nonlinear mixed effect model: application to gastric emptying studies," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(12), pages 2743-2760, December.
    7. Pelenis, Justinas, 2014. "Bayesian regression with heteroscedastic error density and parametric mean function," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 178(P3), pages 624-638.
    8. Sun, Peng & Kim, Inyoung & Lee, Ki-Ahm, 2018. "Dual-semiparametric regression using weighted Dirichlet process mixture," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 162-181.
    9. Norets, Andriy & Pelenis, Justinas, 2022. "Adaptive Bayesian estimation of conditional discrete-continuous distributions with an application to stock market trading activity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 62-82.
    10. Eoghan O'Neill, 2022. "Type I Tobit Bayesian Additive Regression Trees for Censored Outcome Regression," Papers 2211.07506, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2024.
    11. Didier Nibbering & Coos van Buuren & Wei Wei, 2021. "Real Options Valuation of Wind Energy Based on the Empirical Production Uncertainty," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 19/21, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    12. Debdeep Pati & David Dunson, 2014. "Bayesian nonparametric regression with varying residual density," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 66(1), pages 1-31, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jensen, Mark J. & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 157(2), pages 306-316, August.
    2. Griffin, J.E. & Steel, M.F.J., 2011. "Stick-breaking autoregressive processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 383-396, June.
    3. Han, Yufeng, 2012. "State uncertainty in stock markets: How big is the impact on the cost of equity?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 2575-2592.
    4. Ryo Kato & Takahiro Hoshino, 2020. "Semiparametric Bayesian multiple imputation for regression models with missing mixed continuous–discrete covariates," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 72(3), pages 803-825, June.
    5. Griffin, J. E. & Steel, M. F. J., 2004. "Semiparametric Bayesian inference for stochastic frontier models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 121-152, November.
    6. Chib, Siddhartha & Jacobi, Liana, 2008. "Analysis of treatment response data from eligibility designs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 465-478, June.
    7. Chib, Siddhartha & Jacobi, Liana, 2007. "Modeling and calculating the effect of treatment at baseline from panel outcomes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 781-801, October.
    8. Fisher, Mark & Jensen, Mark J., 2019. "Bayesian inference and prediction of a multiple-change-point panel model with nonparametric priors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 187-202.
    9. Villani, Mattias & Kohn, Robert & Giordani, Paolo, 2009. "Regression density estimation using smooth adaptive Gaussian mixtures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 155-173, December.
    10. Mark J. Jensen, 2004. "Semiparametric Bayesian Inference of Long‐Memory Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(6), pages 895-922, November.
    11. Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2023. "Forecasting with a panel Tobit model," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 117-159, January.
    12. Denzil G. Fiebig & Michael P. Keane & Jordan Louviere & Nada Wasi, 2010. "The Generalized Multinomial Logit Model: Accounting for Scale and Coefficient Heterogeneity," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 393-421, 05-06.
    13. Laura Liu, 2017. "Density Forecasts in Panel Models: A semiparametric Bayesian Perspective," PIER Working Paper Archive 17-006, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 28 Apr 2017.
    14. Deschamps, Philippe J., 2012. "Bayesian estimation of generalized hyperbolic skewed student GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3035-3054.
    15. Yajuan Si & Jerome P. Reiter, 2013. "Nonparametric Bayesian Multiple Imputation for Incomplete Categorical Variables in Large-Scale Assessment Surveys," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 38(5), pages 499-521, October.
    16. Federico Bassetti & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Bayesian Nonparametric Calibration and Combination of Predictive Distributions," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 113(522), pages 675-685, April.
    17. Yasuhiro Omori & Siddhartha Chib & Neil Shephard & Jouchi Nakajima, 2004. "Stochastic Volatility with Leverage: Fast Likelihood Inference," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-297, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    18. Humera Razzak & Christian Heumann, 2019. "Hybrid Multiple Imputation In A Large Scale Complex Survey," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 20(4), pages 33-58, December.
    19. Razzak Humera & Heumann Christian, 2019. "Hybrid Multiple Imputation In A Large Scale Complex Survey," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 20(4), pages 33-58, December.
    20. Lei Shi, 2020. "Bayesian analysis of multivariate ordered probit model with individual heterogeneity," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 104(4), pages 649-665, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:156:y:2010:i:2:p:322-336. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.