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A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation

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  • Zhang, Xibin
  • Brooks, Robert D.
  • King, Maxwell L.

Abstract

This paper presents a Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression. A Monte Carlo study shows that under the average squared error criterion, the Bayesian bandwidth selector is comparable to the cross-validation method and clearly outperforms the bootstrapping and rule-of-thumb bandwidth selectors. The Bayesian bandwidth selector is applied to a multivariate kernel regression model that is often used to estimate the state-price density of Arrow-Debreu securities with the S&P 500 index options data and the DAX index options data. The proposed Bayesian bandwidth selector represents a data-driven solution to the problem of choosing bandwidths for the multivariate kernel regression involved in the nonparametric estimation of the state-price density pioneered by Aït-Sahalia and Lo [Aït-Sahalia, Y., Lo, A.W., 1998. Nonparametric estimation of state-price densities implicit in financial asset prices. The Journal of Finance, 53, 499, 547.]

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  • Zhang, Xibin & Brooks, Robert D. & King, Maxwell L., 2009. "A Bayesian approach to bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with an application to state-price density estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 21-32, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:153:y:2009:i:1:p:21-32
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Koláček & Ivana Horová, 2017. "Bandwidth matrix selectors for kernel regression," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 1027-1046, September.
    2. Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King & Han Lin Shang, 2016. "Bayesian Bandwidth Selection for a Nonparametric Regression Model with Mixed Types of Regressors," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 4(2), pages 1-27, April.
    3. Zhang, Xibin & King, Maxwell L. & Shang, Han Lin, 2014. "A sampling algorithm for bandwidth estimation in a nonparametric regression model with a flexible error density," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 218-234.
    4. Anastasios Panagiotelis & Michael S. Smith & Peter J. Danaher, 2014. "From Amazon to Apple: Modeling Online Retail Sales, Purchase Incidence, and Visit Behavior," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 14-29, January.
    5. Xibin Zhang & Maxwell L. King & Han Lin Shang, 2011. "Bayesian estimation of bandwidths for a nonparametric regression model with a flexible error density," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    6. Cui, Zhenyu & Kirkby, J. Lars & Nguyen, Duy, 2021. "A data-driven framework for consistent financial valuation and risk measurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 381-398.
    7. Guohua Feng & Chuan Wang & Xibin Zhang, 2019. "Estimation of inefficiency in stochastic frontier models: a Bayesian kernel approach," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 1-19, February.
    8. Tristan Senga Kiessé & Nabil Zougab & Célestin C. Kokonendji, 2016. "Bayesian estimation of bandwidth in semiparametric kernel estimation of unknown probability mass and regression functions of count data," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 189-206, March.
    9. Song Li & Mervyn J. Silvapulle & Param Silvapulle & Xibin Zhang, 2015. "Bayesian Approaches to Nonparametric Estimation of Densities on the Unit Interval," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 394-412, March.
    10. Filippone, Maurizio & Sanguinetti, Guido, 2011. "Approximate inference of the bandwidth in multivariate kernel density estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(12), pages 3104-3122, December.
    11. Xixuan Han & Boyu Wei & Hailiang Yang, 2018. "Index Options And Volatility Derivatives In A Gaussian Random Field Risk-Neutral Density Model," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(04), pages 1-41, June.
    12. Oliver Morell & Dennis Otto & Roland Fried, 2013. "On robust cross-validation for nonparametric smoothing," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 1617-1637, August.
    13. Rong Zhang & Brett A. Inder & Xibin Zhang, 2012. "Parameter estimation for a discrete-response model with double rules of sample selection: A Bayesian approach," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 5/12, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    14. Dalderop, Jeroen, 2020. "Nonparametric filtering of conditional state-price densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(2), pages 295-325.
    15. Han Shang, 2014. "Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a semi-functional partial linear regression model with unknown error density," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 829-848, June.
    16. Ana M. Monteiro & Antonio A. F. Santos, 2020. "Conditional risk-neutral density from option prices by local polynomial kernel smoothing with no-arbitrage constraints," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 41-61, April.
    17. Shang, Han Lin, 2013. "Bayesian bandwidth estimation for a nonparametric functional regression model with unknown error density," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 185-198.
    18. Li, Yong & Zhang, Mingzhi & Zhang, Yonghui, 2022. "Sequential Bayesian bandwidth selection for multivariate kernel regression with applications," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    19. Feng, Guohua & Zhang, Xiaohui, 2014. "Returns to scale at large banks in the US: A random coefficient stochastic frontier approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 135-145.
    20. Zhang, Rong & Inder, Brett A. & Zhang, Xibin, 2015. "Bayesian estimation of a discrete response model with double rules of sample selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 81-96.
    21. Hart, Jeffrey D. & Choi, Taeryon & Yi, Seongbaek, 2016. "Frequentist nonparametric goodness-of-fit tests via marginal likelihood ratios," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 120-132.
    22. Rong Zhang & Brett A. Inder & Xibin Zhang, 2013. "Bayesian estimation of a discrete response model with double rules of sample selection," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/13, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Black-Scholes formula Bootstrapping Cross-validation Markov chain Monte Carlo Time to maturity;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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