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Predicting land use and environmental dynamics in Argentina's Pampas region: An agent-based modeling approach across varied price and climatic scenarios

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  • Ferraro, Diego O.
  • Ghersa, Felipe
  • Castro, Rodrigo

Abstract

This study, employing the AGRODEVS Agent-Based Model (ABM), systematically examined land use dynamics in Argentina's Pampas Region. Simulations under diverse scenarios highlighted the significant role of economic determinants, particularly crop price relationships, in influencing maize or wheat/soybean double cropping prevalence. Maize-dominated landscapes consistently achieved carbon sequestration goals, while wheat/soybean landscapes faced challenges, notably in ecotoxicity. Scenarios encompassed varying climatic conditions and soybean/maize price ratios, providing insights into the interplay shaping agricultural land use decisions among individual agents. The AGRODEVS model's robust performance underscored its effectiveness in integrating economic and environmental factors, contributing to a practical understanding of sustainable land use planning complexities.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferraro, Diego O. & Ghersa, Felipe & Castro, Rodrigo, 2024. "Predicting land use and environmental dynamics in Argentina's Pampas region: An agent-based modeling approach across varied price and climatic scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 498(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:498:y:2024:i:c:s0304380024002692
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110881
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