IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v497y2024ics0304380024002011.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Paying colonization credit with forest management could accelerate the range shift of temperate trees under climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Vieira, Willian
  • Boulangeat, Isabelle
  • Brice, Marie-Hélène
  • Bradley, Robert L.
  • Gravel, Dominique

Abstract

The northward migration of several tree species ranges is likely to lag behind climate change due to slow demography, competitive interactions, and dispersal limitations. These will result in a colonization credit, where suitable climate envelopes are left unoccupied, and extinction debt, where tree stands persist at unsuitable climatic locations. While the underlying mechanisms explaining the delayed range shift of forest trees have been investigated, few studies have focused on how management could overcome this lag. Here we extend a forest community state model derived from the metapopulation theory and validated with over 40,000 forest inventory plots, to formulate how forest management can accelerate the response of the boreal-temperate ecotone under warming temperature. We first complete the model equations to represent how four types of forest management may affect the transitions between four forest states: Boreal, Temperate, Mixed and Regeneration. We then simulated the potential of forest management to reduce colonization credit and extinction debt using two complementary approaches to measure the resilience and range shift of the boreal-temperate ecotone in response to warming temperature. Our simulations reveal that paying the colonization credit by planting temperate trees in a stand in Regeneration or Boreal state are likely to i) reduce the return time to equilibrium, ii) increase forest resilience, and iii) move the ecotone towards colder temperatures. Surprisingly, harvesting boreal trees in stands in Boreal or Mixed state were not effective to reduce extinction debt and provide colonization opportunities for temperate trees. Our results suggest that forest management related to planting actions could help the boreal-temperate ecotone keep pace with climate change. Future experiments are required to test these theoretical expectations and make operational recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Vieira, Willian & Boulangeat, Isabelle & Brice, Marie-Hélène & Bradley, Robert L. & Gravel, Dominique, 2024. "Paying colonization credit with forest management could accelerate the range shift of temperate trees under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 497(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:497:y:2024:i:c:s0304380024002011
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110813
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024002011
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110813?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter B. Reich & Kerrie M. Sendall & Karen Rice & Roy L. Rich & Artur Stefanski & Sarah E. Hobbie & Rebecca A. Montgomery, 2015. "Geographic range predicts photosynthetic and growth response to warming in co-occurring tree species," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 5(2), pages 148-152, February.
    2. Stefan Dullinger & Andreas Gattringer & Wilfried Thuiller & Dietmar Moser & Niklaus E. Zimmermann & Antoine Guisan & Wolfgang Willner & Christoph Plutzar & Michael Leitner & Thomas Mang & Marco Caccia, 2012. "Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 619-622, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hiltner, Ulrike & Bräuning, Achim & Gebrekirstos, Aster & Huth, Andreas & Fischer, Rico, 2016. "Impacts of precipitation variability on the dynamics of a dry tropical montane forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 92-101.
    2. Wang, Chunyu & Li, Sien & Wu, Mousong & Zhang, Wenxin & Guo, Zhenyu & Huang, Siyu & Yang, Danni, 2023. "Co-regulation of temperature and moisture in the irrigated agricultural ecosystem productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    3. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    4. Jinglan Cui & Ouping Deng & Miao Zheng & Xiuming Zhang & Zihao Bian & Naiqing Pan & Hanqin Tian & Jianming Xu & Baojing Gu, 2024. "Warming exacerbates global inequality in forest carbon and nitrogen cycles," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-13, December.
    5. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Arne Strid & Thomas Raus & Panayotis Dimopoulos, 2021. "Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    6. Jan Altman & Kerstin Treydte & Vit Pejcha & Tomas Cerny & Petr Petrik & Miroslav Srutek & Jong-Suk Song & Valerie Trouet & Jiri Dolezal, 2020. "Tree growth response to recent warming of two endemic species in Northeast Asia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(3), pages 1345-1364, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:497:y:2024:i:c:s0304380024002011. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.