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Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Stefan Dullinger

    (Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
    Faculty Centre of Biodiversity, University of Vienna)

  • Andreas Gattringer

    (Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses)

  • Wilfried Thuiller

    (Université Grenoble I, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Ecologie Alpine)

  • Dietmar Moser

    (Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses)

  • Niklaus E. Zimmermann

    (Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL)

  • Antoine Guisan

    (University of Lausanne)

  • Wolfgang Willner

    (Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses)

  • Christoph Plutzar

    (Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
    Institute of Social Ecology Vienna (SEC), Alpen-Adria-University)

  • Michael Leitner

    (Faculty of Physics, University of Vienna
    FRM II, Technical University of Munich)

  • Thomas Mang

    (Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses
    Faculty Centre of Biodiversity, University of Vienna)

  • Marco Caccianiga

    (Università degli Studi di Milano)

  • Thomas Dirnböck

    (Environment Agency Austria)

  • Siegrun Ertl

    (Faculty Centre of Biodiversity, University of Vienna)

  • Anton Fischer

    (Geobotany, Center of Life and Food Sciences, Technische Universität München)

  • Jonathan Lenoir

    (Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Aarhus University
    Ecologie et Dynamique des Systèmes Anthropisés (EA4698), Université de Picardie Jules Verne)

  • Jens-Christian Svenning

    (Ecoinformatics & Biodiversity Group, Aarhus University)

  • Achilleas Psomas

    (Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL)

  • Dirk R. Schmatz

    (Landscape Dynamics Unit, Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL)

  • Urban Silc

    (Institute of Biology Zrc Sazu, Novi trg 2)

  • Pascal Vittoz

    (University of Lausanne)

  • Karl Hülber

    (Vienna Institute for Nature Conservation and Analyses)

Abstract

Using information on current species distributions and dispersal traits, this study forecasts climate-driven range dynamics of plant species across the European Alps. Simulations predict moderate range contractions over the twenty-first century; however, more severe effects of climate warming on mountain plant diversity are expected in the longer term.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefan Dullinger & Andreas Gattringer & Wilfried Thuiller & Dietmar Moser & Niklaus E. Zimmermann & Antoine Guisan & Wolfgang Willner & Christoph Plutzar & Michael Leitner & Thomas Mang & Marco Caccia, 2012. "Extinction debt of high-mountain plants under twenty-first-century climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 619-622, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:natcli:v:2:y:2012:i:8:d:10.1038_nclimate1514
    DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1514
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    Cited by:

    1. Konstantinos Kougioumoutzis & Ioannis P. Kokkoris & Arne Strid & Thomas Raus & Panayotis Dimopoulos, 2021. "Climate-Change Impacts on the Southernmost Mediterranean Arctic-Alpine Plant Populations," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-23, December.
    2. Hiltner, Ulrike & Bräuning, Achim & Gebrekirstos, Aster & Huth, Andreas & Fischer, Rico, 2016. "Impacts of precipitation variability on the dynamics of a dry tropical montane forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 92-101.
    3. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.

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