IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v483y2023ics0304380023001655.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Sensitivity of forest composition and productivity to climate change in mixed broadleaved-Korean pine forest of Northeastern China

Author

Listed:
  • Wu, Mia M.
  • Liang, Yu
  • Taubert, Franziska
  • Huth, Andreas
  • Zhang, Min
  • Wang, Xugao

Abstract

Temperate forest is one of the largest forest biomes and is undergoing remarkable shifts in forest composition and ecosystem productivity under warming climates. However, there are considerable uncertainties when predicting future dynamics of temperate forest ecosystems partly because of the uncertainties in future climate predictions. Sensitivity analysis provides an effective mean to evaluate the uncertainties in the predicted forest responses to climate change. Here we evaluated the sensitivity of forest composition and productivity to climate change in the mixed broadleaved-Korean pine forest, a keystone temperate forest type in northeast China. In this study, we used a process-based forest dynamic model, FORMIND, to simulate and predict the response of the mixed broadleaved-Korean pine forest under climate change based on plant functional types (PFTs), and we performed model calibration using forest investigation. We then designed a factorial experiment to quantify the sensitivity to temperature and precipitation of forest composition and ecosystem productivity. Results showed that the uncertainty in future climate predictions could result in divergent responses of forest composition and ecosystem productivity to climate change over the 21st century. The response of PFTs to climate (temperature and precipitation) varied in terms of aboveground biomass. Both shade-tolerant and shade-intolerant PFTs exhibited higher sensitivity (>80% for most of the PFTs) to temperature than precipitation, yet they responded oppositely to climate warming with shade-tolerant PFTs generally increasing but shade-tolerant PFTs decreasing. Moderate shade-tolerant PFTs showed higher precipitation sensitiveness (>50%). Such differences in response and sensitivity of PFTs to climate change are related to PFTs’ competitiveness. Ecosystem productivity exhibited a higher sensitivity (≥50%) to temperature than to precipitation. There was more increase in ecosystem respiration than gross primary productivity (GPP) under warming climate, leading to a decrease in carbon sequestration and net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Our study addresses the importance of evaluating the sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate change, which is relatively less studied. The insight from the study may help design effective forest management strategies to cope with future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Mia M. & Liang, Yu & Taubert, Franziska & Huth, Andreas & Zhang, Min & Wang, Xugao, 2023. "Sensitivity of forest composition and productivity to climate change in mixed broadleaved-Korean pine forest of Northeastern China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 483(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:483:y:2023:i:c:s0304380023001655
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110434
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380023001655
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2023.110434?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Groeneveld, J. & Alves, L.F. & Bernacci, L.C. & Catharino, E.L.M. & Knogge, C. & Metzger, J.P. & Pütz, S. & Huth, A., 2009. "The impact of fragmentation and density regulation on forest succession in the Atlantic rain forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(19), pages 2450-2459.
    2. Huang, Chao & Liang, Yu & He, Hong S. & Wu, Mia M. & Liu, Bo & Ma, Tianxiao, 2021. "Sensitivity of aboveground biomass and species composition to climate change in boreal forests of Northeastern China," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 445(C).
    3. Fischer, Rico & Bohn, Friedrich & Dantas de Paula, Mateus & Dislich, Claudia & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Kazmierczak, Martin & Knapp, Nikolai & Lehmann, Sebastian & Paulick, Sebastia, 2016. "Lessons learned from applying a forest gap model to understand ecosystem and carbon dynamics of complex tropical forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 124-133.
    4. Per Gundersen & Emil E. Thybring & Thomas Nord-Larsen & Lars Vesterdal & Knute J. Nadelhoffer & Vivian K. Johannsen, 2021. "Old-growth forest carbon sinks overestimated," Nature, Nature, vol. 591(7851), pages 21-23, March.
    5. Trevor F. Keenan & Josh Gray & Mark A. Friedl & Michael Toomey & Gil Bohrer & David Y. Hollinger & J. William Munger & John O’Keefe & Hans Peter Schmid & Ian Sue Wing & Bai Yang & Andrew D. Richardson, 2014. "Net carbon uptake has increased through warming-induced changes in temperate forest phenology," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 598-604, July.
    6. Bohn, Friedrich J. & Frank, Karin & Huth, Andreas, 2014. "Of climate and its resulting tree growth: Simulating the productivity of temperate forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 278(C), pages 9-17.
    7. Shilong Piao & Jingyun Fang & Philippe Ciais & Philippe Peylin & Yao Huang & Stephen Sitch & Tao Wang, 2009. "The carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in China," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7241), pages 1009-1013, April.
    8. Daehyun Kim & Andrew C. Millington & Charles W. Lafon, 2020. "Disturbance after Disturbance: Combined Effects of Two Successive Hurricanes on Forest Community Structure," Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(3), pages 571-585, May.
    9. Eric A. Davidson & Ivan A. Janssens, 2006. "Temperature sensitivity of soil carbon decomposition and feedbacks to climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 440(7081), pages 165-173, March.
    10. Jingli Zhang & Yong Zhou & Guangsheng Zhou & Chunwang Xiao, 2014. "Composition and Structure of Pinus koraiensis Mixed Forest Respond to Spatial Climatic Changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(5), pages 1-10, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei Wang & Wenjing Zeng & Weile Chen & Hui Zeng & Jingyun Fang, 2013. "Soil Respiration and Organic Carbon Dynamics with Grassland Conversions to Woodlands in Temperate China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(8), pages 1-10, August.
    2. Zhang, Fan & Li, Changsheng & Wang, Zheng & Glidden, Stanley & Grogan, Danielle S. & Li, Xuxiang & Cheng, Yan & Frolking, Steve, 2015. "Modeling impacts of management on farmland soil carbon dynamics along a climate gradient in Northwest China during 1981–2000," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 312(C), pages 1-10.
    3. Rui Yin & Wenkuan Qin & Xudong Wang & Dong Xie & Hao Wang & Hongyang Zhao & Zhenhua Zhang & Jin-Sheng He & Martin Schädler & Paul Kardol & Nico Eisenhauer & Biao Zhu, 2023. "Experimental warming causes mismatches in alpine plant-microbe-fauna phenology," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-9, December.
    4. Shuxuan Xing & Shengfu Yang & Haonan Sun & Yi Wang, 2023. "Spatiotemporal Changes of Terrestrial Carbon Storage in Rapidly Urbanizing Areas and Their Influencing Factors: A Case Study of Wuhan, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Jieming Chou & Yidan Hao & Yuan Xu & Weixing Zhao & Yuanmeng Li & Haofeng Jin, 2023. "Forest Carbon Sequestration Potential in China under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-12, April.
    6. Md. Zonayet & Alok Kumar Paul & Md. Faisal-E-Alam & Khalid Syfullah & Rui Alexandre Castanho & Daniel Meyer, 2023. "Impact of Biochar as a Soil Conditioner to Improve the Soil Properties of Saline Soil and Productivity of Tomato," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-18, March.
    7. S . K. Oni & F. Mieres & M. N. Futter & H. Laudon, 2017. "Soil temperature responses to climate change along a gradient of upland–riparian transect in boreal forest," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 27-41, July.
    8. Elena A. Mikhailova & Garth R. Groshans & Christopher J. Post & Mark A. Schlautman & Gregory C. Post, 2019. "Valuation of Soil Organic Carbon Stocks in the Contiguous United States Based on the Avoided Social Cost of Carbon Emissions," Resources, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, August.
    9. Pütz, S. & Groeneveld, J. & Alves, L.F. & Metzger, J.P. & Huth, A., 2011. "Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(12), pages 1986-1997.
    10. Zhen, Wei & Qin, Quande & Miao, Lu, 2023. "The greenhouse gas rebound effect from increased energy efficiency across China's staple crops," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    11. Vacchiano, Giorgio & Ascoli, Davide & Berzaghi, Fabio & Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban & Caignard, Thomas & Collalti, Alessio & Mairota, Paola & Palaghianu, Ciprian & Reyer, Christopher P.O. & Sanders, T, 2018. "Reproducing reproduction: How to simulate mast seeding in forest models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 40-53.
    12. Claudia Dislich & Elisabeth Hettig & Jan Salecker & Johannes Heinonen & Jann Lay & Katrin M Meyer & Kerstin Wiegand & Suria Tarigan, 2018. "Land-use change in oil palm dominated tropical landscapes—An agent-based model to explore ecological and socio-economic trade-offs," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 13(1), pages 1-20, January.
    13. Zhenghu Zhou & Chengjie Ren & Chuankuan Wang & Manuel Delgado-Baquerizo & Yiqi Luo & Zhongkui Luo & Zhenggang Du & Biao Zhu & Yuanhe Yang & Shuo Jiao & Fazhu Zhao & Andong Cai & Gaihe Yang & Gehong We, 2024. "Global turnover of soil mineral-associated and particulate organic carbon," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-9, December.
    14. Zeyang Zhao & Peng Dong & Bo Fu & Dan Wu & Zhizhong Zhao, 2024. "Labile Fraction of Organic Carbon in Soils from Natural and Plantation Forests of Tropical China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(17), pages 1-12, September.
    15. Li Gao & Mingjing Huang & Wuping Zhang & Lei Qiao & Guofang Wang & Xumeng Zhang, 2021. "Comparative Study on Spatial Digital Mapping Methods of Soil Nutrients Based on Different Geospatial Technologies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, March.
    16. Raitis Normunds Meļņiks & Arta Bārdule & Aldis Butlers & Jordane Champion & Santa Kalēja & Ilona Skranda & Guna Petaja & Andis Lazdiņš, 2023. "Carbon Losses from Topsoil in Abandoned Peat Extraction Sites Due to Ground Subsidence and Erosion," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-17, December.
    17. Luyi Qiu & Kunying Niu & Wei He & Yaqi Hu, 2023. "Two Contribution Paths of Carbon Neutrality: Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sinks and Anthropogenic Carbon Emission Reduction—A Case of Chongqing, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-17, July.
    18. Xiangwen Wu & Shuying Zang & Dalong Ma & Jianhua Ren & Qiang Chen & Xingfeng Dong, 2019. "Emissions of CO 2 , CH 4 , and N 2 O Fluxes from Forest Soil in Permafrost Region of Daxing’an Mountains, Northeast China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(16), pages 1-14, August.
    19. Husnain Husnain & I. Wigena & Ai Dariah & Setiari Marwanto & Prihasto Setyanto & Fahmuddin Agus, 2014. "CO 2 emissions from tropical drained peat in Sumatra, Indonesia," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 19(6), pages 845-862, August.
    20. Nikolay Gorbach & Viktor Startsev & Anton Mazur & Evgeniy Milanovskiy & Anatoly Prokushkin & Alexey Dymov, 2022. "Simulation of Smoldering Combustion of Organic Horizons at Pine and Spruce Boreal Forests with Lab-Heating Experiments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-20, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:483:y:2023:i:c:s0304380023001655. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.