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Sustainability factors in dynamical systems modeling: Simulating the non-linear aspects of multiple equilibria

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  • Dorsey, Joseph W.
  • Hardy, Leon C.

Abstract

What is sustainability? Sustainability is a concept that can be defined in many ways depending upon a society's perception of current material needs and the actual material needs of future generations. Much of our ability to achieve sustainability entails developing indicators and measurements that will guide us to this goal. This paper suggests that we can strengthen the prediction of sustainability indicators by adopting a “multiple equilibria” approach for a more effective decision-making process in various sectors of the economy, in ecosystem protection, or in political arenas. There is an emerging need for further development of predictive mathematical models of system sustainability over economic growth models for sustainable resource measurement and management. The objective of this paper is to use computer modeling and differential equations to simulate the “multiple equilibria” of a 3 variable real world system. In our study, we tested the theoretical validity of “multiple equilibria” sustainability modeling through simulated measurements of precipitation and nitrogen runoff into a hypothetical lake. As a quantitative tool to model, the “multiple equilibria” techniques can have tremendous predictive power for business leaders, political decision makers, and environmental scientists, and assist in better management of ecological, economic, and material resources in short-term and long-term end-use scenarios.

Suggested Citation

  • Dorsey, Joseph W. & Hardy, Leon C., 2018. "Sustainability factors in dynamical systems modeling: Simulating the non-linear aspects of multiple equilibria," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 368(C), pages 69-77.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:368:y:2018:i:c:p:69-77
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.11.008
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    1. Fujita, Masahisa & Ogawa, Hideaki, 1982. "Multiple equilibria and structural transition of non-monocentric urban configurations," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 161-196, May.
    2. Paul R. Masson, 1999. "Multiple equilibria, contagion, and the emerging market crises," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Sep.
    3. Lambin, Eric & DeBevoise, M. B., 2007. "The Middle Path," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226468532, Febrero.
    4. Stephen Morris & Hyun Song Shin, 2001. "Rethinking Multiple Equilibria in Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 139-182, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Maroto, José M. & Morán, Manuel, 2019. "Transient dynamics: Equilibrium, collapse, and extinction in age-structured models. The case of the Northern cod stock," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 398(C), pages 35-43.

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