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Flexible von Bertalanffy growth models incorporating Bayesian splines

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  • Chambers, Mark S.
  • Sidhu, Leesa A.
  • O’Neill, Ben
  • Sibanda, Nokuthaba

Abstract

Understanding the growth rates of fish is vital for effective fisheries management. Historically a three-parameter von Bertalanffy growth model (VBGM) has most often been used to describe the somatic growth of fish. However, increasingly, populations are identified with patterns of growth that are not adequately described by the standard VBGM. We describe a more flexible growth model obtained by replacing the normally constant von Bertalanffy growth coefficient, k, with a piecewise constant function, K, of age. In principle this allows arbitrary monotonic growth to be approximated within a generalized von Bertalanffy structure. Posterior distributions of model parameters are approximated by the method of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo using the Stan software package. Spline smoothing of the K function is achieved by specifying a hierarchical random walk prior. We compare fits achieved using this new approach to observations of length-at-age of southern bluefin tuna (Thunnus maccoyii) with a range of existing growth models.

Suggested Citation

  • Chambers, Mark S. & Sidhu, Leesa A. & O’Neill, Ben & Sibanda, Nokuthaba, 2017. "Flexible von Bertalanffy growth models incorporating Bayesian splines," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 355(C), pages 1-11.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:355:y:2017:i:c:p:1-11
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.03.026
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    2. Fahrmeir, Ludwig & Kneib, Thomas, 2011. "Bayesian Smoothing and Regression for Longitudinal, Spatial and Event History Data," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199533022.
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    1. Bavčević, Lav & Petrović, Siniša & Karamarko, Vatroslav & Luzzana, Umberto & Klanjšček, Tin, 2020. "Estimating fish energy content and gain from length and wet weight," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 436(C).
    2. Contreras-Reyes, Javier E. & López Quintero, Freddy O. & Wiff, Rodrigo, 2018. "Bayesian modeling of individual growth variability using back-calculation: Application to pink cusk-eel (Genypterus blacodes) off Chile," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 385(C), pages 145-153.

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