IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v337y2016icp96-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling the influence of biotic factors on species distribution patterns

Author

Listed:
  • Leach, Katie
  • Montgomery, W. Ian
  • Reid, Neil

Abstract

Biotic interactions can have large effects on species distributions yet their role in shaping species ranges is seldom explored due to historical difficulties in incorporating biotic factors into models without a priori knowledge on interspecific interactions. Improved SDMs, which account for biotic factors and do not require a priori knowledge on species interactions, are needed to fully understand species distributions. Here, we model the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on species distribution patterns and explore the robustness of distributions under future climate change. We fit hierarchical spatial models using Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) for lagomorph species throughout Europe and test the predictive ability of models containing only abiotic factors against models containing abiotic and biotic factors. We account for residual spatial autocorrelation using a conditional autoregressive (CAR) model. Model outputs are used to estimate areas in which abiotic and biotic factors determine species’ ranges. INLA models containing both abiotic and biotic factors had substantially better predictive ability than models containing abiotic factors only, for all but one of the four species. In models containing abiotic and biotic factors, both appeared equally important as determinants of lagomorph ranges, but the influences were spatially heterogeneous. Parts of widespread lagomorph ranges highly influenced by biotic factors will be less robust to future changes in climate, whereas parts of more localised species ranges highly influenced by the environment may be less robust to future climate. SDMs that do not explicitly include biotic factors are potentially misleading and omit a very important source of variation. For the field of species distribution modelling to advance, biotic factors must be taken into account in order to improve the reliability of predicting species distribution patterns both presently and under future climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Leach, Katie & Montgomery, W. Ian & Reid, Neil, 2016. "Modelling the influence of biotic factors on species distribution patterns," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 337(C), pages 96-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:337:y:2016:i:c:p:96-106
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.06.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380016302216
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2016.06.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Takuya Iwamura & Kerrie A Wilson & Oscar Venter & Hugh P Possingham, 2010. "A Climatic Stability Approach to Prioritizing Global Conservation Investments," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 5(11), pages 1-9, November.
    2. Håvard Rue & Sara Martino & Nicolas Chopin, 2009. "Approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models by using integrated nested Laplace approximations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(2), pages 319-392, April.
    3. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
    4. James E. M. Watson & Takuya Iwamura & Nathalie Butt, 2013. "Mapping vulnerability and conservation adaptation strategies under climate change," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 3(11), pages 989-994, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Humphreys, John M. & Elsner, James B. & Jagger, Thomas H. & Pau, Stephanie, 2017. "A Bayesian geostatistical approach to modeling global distributions of Lygodium microphyllum under projected climate warming," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 363(C), pages 192-206.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mayer Alvo & Jingrui Mu, 2023. "COVID-19 Data Analysis Using Bayesian Models and Nonparametric Geostatistical Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-13, March.
    2. David Jiménez-Hernández & Víctor González-Calatayud & Ana Torres-Soto & Asunción Martínez Mayoral & Javier Morales, 2020. "Digital Competence of Future Secondary School Teachers: Differences According to Gender, Age, and Branch of Knowledge," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(22), pages 1-16, November.
    3. Massimo Bilancia & Giacomo Demarinis, 2014. "Bayesian scanning of spatial disease rates with integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(1), pages 71-94, March.
    4. Douglas R. M. Azevedo & Marcos O. Prates & Dipankar Bandyopadhyay, 2021. "MSPOCK: Alleviating Spatial Confounding in Multivariate Disease Mapping Models," Journal of Agricultural, Biological and Environmental Statistics, Springer;The International Biometric Society;American Statistical Association, vol. 26(3), pages 464-491, September.
    5. Braulio-Gonzalo, Marta & Bovea, María D. & Jorge-Ortiz, Andrea & Juan, Pablo, 2021. "Which is the best-fit response variable for modelling the energy consumption of households? An analysis based on survey data," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C).
    6. I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya & Henk Folmer, 2024. "High-Resolution Spatiotemporal Forecasting with Missing Observations Including an Application to Daily Particulate Matter 2.5 Concentrations in Jakarta Province, Indonesia," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(18), pages 1-29, September.
    7. Isabel Martínez-Pérez & Verónica González-Iglesias & Valentín Rodríguez Suárez & Ana Fernández-Somoano, 2021. "Spatial Distribution of Hospitalizations for Ischemic Heart Diseases in the Central Region of Asturias, Spain," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(23), pages 1-10, November.
    8. Maike Tahden & Juliane Manitz & Klaus Baumgardt & Gerhard Fell & Thomas Kneib & Guido Hegasy, 2016. "Epidemiological and Ecological Characterization of the EHEC O104:H4 Outbreak in Hamburg, Germany, 2011," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, October.
    9. Zhang, Shen & Liu, Xin & Tang, Jinjun & Cheng, Shaowu & Qi, Yong & Wang, Yinhai, 2018. "Spatio-temporal modeling of destination choice behavior through the Bayesian hierarchical approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 512(C), pages 537-551.
    10. Shuangshuang Xu & Marco A. R. Ferreira & Erica M. Porter & Christopher T. Franck, 2023. "Bayesian model selection for generalized linear mixed models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 3266-3278, December.
    11. Zhao, Qing & Boomer, G. Scott & Silverman, Emily & Fleming, Kathy, 2017. "Accounting for the temporal variation of spatial effect improves inference and projection of population dynamics models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 360(C), pages 252-259.
    12. Darren J. Mayne & Geoffrey G. Morgan & Bin B. Jalaludin & Adrian E. Bauman, 2018. "Does Walkability Contribute to Geographic Variation in Psychosocial Distress? A Spatial Analysis of 91,142 Members of the 45 and Up Study in Sydney, Australia," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, February.
    13. Luca Grassetti & Laura Rizzi, 2019. "The determinants of individual health care expenditures in the Italian region of Friuli Venezia Giulia: evidence from a hierarchical spatial model estimation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 987-1009, March.
    14. White, Staci A. & Herbei, Radu, 2015. "A Monte Carlo approach to quantifying model error in Bayesian parameter estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 168-181.
    15. Ferreira, Marco A.R. & Porter, Erica M. & Franck, Christopher T., 2021. "Fast and scalable computations for Gaussian hierarchical models with intrinsic conditional autoregressive spatial random effects," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    16. John M. Humphreys, 2022. "Amplification in Time and Dilution in Space: Partitioning Spatiotemporal Processes to Assess the Role of Avian-Host Phylodiversity in Shaping Eastern Equine Encephalitis Virus Distribution," Geographies, MDPI, vol. 2(3), pages 1-16, July.
    17. Faustin Habyarimana & Temesgen Zewotir & Shaun Ramroop, 2017. "Structured Additive Quantile Regression for Assessing the Determinants of Childhood Anemia in Rwanda," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-15, June.
    18. Medina-Olivares, Victor & Calabrese, Raffaella & Dong, Yizhe & Shi, Baofeng, 2022. "Spatial dependence in microfinance credit default," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1071-1085.
    19. Vanessa Santos-Sánchez & Juan Antonio Córdoba-Doña & Francisco Viciana & Antonio Escolar-Pujolar & Lucia Pozzi & Rebeca Ramis, 2020. "Geographical variations in cancer mortality and social inequalities in southern Spain (Andalusia). 2002-2013," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(5), pages 1-24, May.
    20. Li, Yong & Yu, Jun & Zeng, Tao, 2018. "Integrated Deviance Information Criterion for Latent Variable Models," Economics and Statistics Working Papers 6-2018, Singapore Management University, School of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:337:y:2016:i:c:p:96-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.