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Effects of future urban and biofuel crop expansions on the riverine export of phosphorus to the Laurentian Great Lakes

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  • LaBeau, Meredith B.
  • Robertson, Dale M.
  • Mayer, Alex S.
  • Pijanowski, Bryan C.
  • Saad, David A.

Abstract

Increased phosphorus (P) loadings threaten the health of the world's largest freshwater resource, the Laurentian Great Lakes (GL). To understand the linkages between land use and P delivery, we coupled two spatially explicit models, the landscape-scale SPARROW P fate and transport watershed model and the Land Transformation Model (LTM) land use change model, to predict future P export from nonpoint and point sources caused by changes in land use. According to LTM predictions over the period 2010–2040, the GL region of the U.S. may experience a doubling of urbanized areas and agricultural areas may increase by 10%, due to biofuel feedstock cultivation. These land use changes are predicted to increase P loadings from the U.S. side of the GL basin by 3.5–9.5%, depending on the Lake watershed and development scenario. The exception is Lake Ontario, where loading is predicted to decrease by 1.8% for one scenario, due to population losses in the drainage area. Overall, urban expansion is estimated to increase P loadings by 3.4%. Agricultural expansion associated with predicted biofuel feedstock cultivation is predicted to increase P loadings by an additional 2.4%. Watersheds that export P most efficiently and thus are the most vulnerable to increases in P sources tend to be found along southern Lake Ontario, southeastern Lake Erie, western Lake Michigan, and southwestern Lake Superior where watershed areas are concentrated along the coastline with shorter flow paths. In contrast, watersheds with high soil permeabilities, fractions of land underlain by tile drains, and long distances to the GL are less vulnerable.

Suggested Citation

  • LaBeau, Meredith B. & Robertson, Dale M. & Mayer, Alex S. & Pijanowski, Bryan C. & Saad, David A., 2014. "Effects of future urban and biofuel crop expansions on the riverine export of phosphorus to the Laurentian Great Lakes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 277(C), pages 27-37.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:277:y:2014:i:c:p:27-37
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.01.016
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Thomas J. Nechyba & Randall P. Walsh, 2004. "Urban Sprawl," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 177-200, Fall.
    2. Nathan Moore & Gopal Alagarswamy & Bryan Pijanowski & Philip Thornton & Brent Lofgren & Jennifer Olson & Jeffrey Andresen & Pius Yanda & Jiaguo Qi, 2012. "East African food security as influenced by future climate change and land use change at local to regional scales," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 823-844, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2016. "Research Needs and Challenges in the FEW System: Coupling Economic Models with Agronomic, Hydrologic, and Bioenergy Models for Sustainable Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp563, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2017. "Integrated Assessment Models of the Food, Energy, and Water Nexus: A Review and an Outline of Research Needs," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 143-163, October.
    3. Tayyebi, Amin & Arsanjani, Jamal J. & Tayyebi, Amir H. & Omrani, Hichem & Moghadam, Hossein S., 2016. "Group-based crop change planning: Application of SmartScape™ spatial decision support system for resolving conflicts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 92-100.

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