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A coupled stock-recruitment-age-structured model of the North Sea cod under the influence of depensation

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  • Cabral, Reniel B.
  • Aliño, Porfirio M.
  • Lim, May T.

Abstract

Population models that assume logistic growth and a constant flux of recruits predict the recovery of depleted stock once a moratorium on capture is imposed. Despite long-term closure or strict regulation, many fisheries hardly show any recovery after the stocks have been brought to low levels, which suggest that other mechanisms may be responsible for such behavior. Here we show, using a coupled stock-recruitment – age-structured model that the increasing fishing mortality on the North Sea cod (Gadus morhua) has pushed the cod population into the region where depensatory dynamics prevails. The declining trend of the North Sea cod population, which had reached its lowest historical level in the last decade, has recently been showing improvement. We show that the future sustainability of the cod population depends highly on the change in fishing mortality within the next few years. We found a fishing mortality limit of 0.86, consistent with the ICES estimates, beyond which stock extirpation is assured.

Suggested Citation

  • Cabral, Reniel B. & Aliño, Porfirio M. & Lim, May T., 2013. "A coupled stock-recruitment-age-structured model of the North Sea cod under the influence of depensation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-8.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:253:y:2013:i:c:p:1-8
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.12.031
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Grégory Beaugrand & Keith M. Brander & J. Alistair Lindley & Sami Souissi & Philip C. Reid, 2003. "Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea," Nature, Nature, vol. 426(6967), pages 661-664, December.
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    4. Cabral, Reniel B. & Geronimo, Rollan C. & Lim, May T. & Aliño, Porfirio M., 2010. "Effect of variable fishing strategy on fisheries under changing effort and pressure: An agent-based model application," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 362-369.
    5. Rogers, Mark W. & Allen, Micheal S. & Brown, Paul & Hunt, Taylor & Fulton, Wayne & Ingram, Brett A., 2010. "A simulation model to explore the relative value of stock enhancement versus harvest regulations for fishery sustainability," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(6), pages 919-926.
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    Cited by:

    1. Muallil, Richard N. & Mamauag, Samuel S. & Cabral, Reniel B. & Celeste-Dizon, Emerlinda O. & Aliño, Porfirio M., 2014. "Status, trends and challenges in the sustainability of small-scale fisheries in the Philippines: Insights from FISHDA (Fishing Industries' Support in Handling Decisions Application) model," Marine Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 212-221.

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