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Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea

Author

Listed:
  • Grégory Beaugrand

    (Université des Sciences et Technologies de Lille
    The Laboratory Citadel Hill)

  • Keith M. Brander

    (ICES)

  • J. Alistair Lindley

    (The Laboratory Citadel Hill)

  • Sami Souissi

    (Université des Sciences et Technologies de Lille)

  • Philip C. Reid

    (The Laboratory Citadel Hill)

Abstract

The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) has been overexploited in the North Sea since the late 1960s and great concern has been expressed about the decline in cod biomass and recruitment1. Here we show that, in addition to the effects of overfishing1, fluctuations in plankton have resulted in long-term changes in cod recruitment in the North Sea (bottom-up control). Survival of larval cod is shown to depend on three key biological parameters of their prey: the mean size of prey, seasonal timing and abundance. We suggest a mechanism, involving the match/mismatch hypothesis2, by which variability in temperature affects larval cod survival and conclude that rising temperature since the mid-1980s has modified the plankton ecosystem in a way that reduces the survival of young cod.

Suggested Citation

  • Grégory Beaugrand & Keith M. Brander & J. Alistair Lindley & Sami Souissi & Philip C. Reid, 2003. "Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea," Nature, Nature, vol. 426(6967), pages 661-664, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:nat:nature:v:426:y:2003:i:6967:d:10.1038_nature02164
    DOI: 10.1038/nature02164
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    Cited by:

    1. Mackinson, S. & Daskalov, G. & Heymans, J.J. & Neira, S. & Arancibia, H. & Zetina-Rejón, M. & Jiang, H. & Cheng, H.Q. & Coll, M. & Arreguin-Sanchez, F. & Keeble, K. & Shannon, L., 2009. "Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(21), pages 2972-2987.
    2. Mikaël Jaffré & Grégory Beaugrand & Éric Goberville & Frédéric Jiguet & Nils Kjellén & Gerard Troost & Philippe J Dubois & Alain Leprêtre & Christophe Luczak, 2013. "Long-Term Phenological Shifts in Raptor Migration and Climate," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(11), pages 1-1, November.
    3. Gurkan, Zeren & Christensen, Asbjørn & van Deurs, Mikael & Mosegaard, Henrik, 2012. "Growth and survival of larval and early juvenile Lesser Sandeel in patchy prey field in the North Sea: An examination using individual-based modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 232(C), pages 78-90.
    4. Gurkan, Zeren & Christensen, Asbjørn & Maar, Marie & Møller, Eva Friis & Madsen, Kristine Skovgaard & Munk, Peter & Mosegaard, Henrik, 2013. "Spatio-temporal dynamics of growth and survival of Lesser Sandeel early life-stages in the North Sea: Predictions from a coupled individual-based and hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 294-306.
    5. Jiang, Long & Xia, Meng & Ludsin, Stuart A. & Rutherford, Edward S. & Mason, Doran M. & Marin Jarrin, Jose & Pangle, Kevin L., 2015. "Biophysical modeling assessment of the drivers for plankton dynamics in dreissenid-colonized western Lake Erie," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 308(C), pages 18-33.
    6. Lavenia Ratnarajah & Rana Abu-Alhaija & Angus Atkinson & Sonia Batten & Nicholas J. Bax & Kim S. Bernard & Gabrielle Canonico & Astrid Cornils & Jason D. Everett & Maria Grigoratou & Nurul Huda Ahmad , 2023. "Monitoring and modelling marine zooplankton in a changing climate," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-17, December.
    7. Werner, Francisco E. & Ito, Shin-Ichi & Megrey, Bernard A. & Kishi, Michio J., 2007. "Synthesis of the NEMURO model studies and future directions of marine ecosystem modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 211-223.
    8. Cabral, Reniel B. & Aliño, Porfirio M. & Lim, May T., 2013. "A coupled stock-recruitment-age-structured model of the North Sea cod under the influence of depensation," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-8.
    9. Buchheister, Andre & Wilberg, Michael J. & Miller, Thomas J. & Latour, Robert J., 2015. "Simulating bottom-up effects on predator productivity and consequences for the rebuilding timeline of a depleted population," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 311(C), pages 48-62.
    10. Williams, Meryl J., 2004. "World Fish Supplies, Outlook and Food Security," 2004: Fish, Aquaculture and Food Security: Sustaining Fish as a Food Supply, 11 August 2004 124062, Crawford Fund.

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