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Eliciting expert knowledge to inform landscape modeling of conservation scenarios

Author

Listed:
  • Price, Jessica
  • Silbernagel, Janet
  • Miller, Nicholas
  • Swaty, Randy
  • White, Mark
  • Nixon, Kristina

Abstract

Conservation and land management organizations such as The Nature Conservancy are developing strategies to distribute conservation efforts over larger areas. Relative to fee-simple protection efforts, strategies that allow ecologically sustainable timber harvest and recreation activities, such as working forest conservation easements, should yield greater socioeconomic benefits (ecosystem services) with less investment per area without significantly compromising the conservation of biodiversity (ecological targets). At the same time, climate change may profoundly influence forest resilience to management strategies in the coming century. As a result, there are many possible scenarios for the future of our forests and significant uncertainty for practitioners and decision makers. Yet, monitoring efforts aimed at evaluating the effectiveness of conservation strategies span decades or longer, leading to a lag in knowledge transfer and delayed adaptive management.

Suggested Citation

  • Price, Jessica & Silbernagel, Janet & Miller, Nicholas & Swaty, Randy & White, Mark & Nixon, Kristina, 2012. "Eliciting expert knowledge to inform landscape modeling of conservation scenarios," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 76-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:229:y:2012:i:c:p:76-87
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.09.010
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Seidl, Rupert & Fernandes, Paulo M. & Fonseca, Teresa F. & Gillet, François & Jönsson, Anna Maria & Merganičová, Katarína & Netherer, Sigrid & Arpaci, Alexander & Bontemps, Jean-Daniel & Bugmann, Hara, 2011. "Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(4), pages 903-924.
    2. ., 2005. "Future Challenges Facing Utility Industry Managers," Chapters, in: Public Utilities, chapter 16, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Provencher, Louis & Forbis, Tara A. & Frid, Leonardo & Medlyn, Gary, 2007. "Comparing alternative management strategies of fire, grazing, and weed control using spatial modeling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 209(2), pages 249-263.
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    1. Robert W. Hoyer & Heejun Chang, 2014. "Development of Future Land Cover Change Scenarios in the Metropolitan Fringe, Oregon, U.S., with Stakeholder Involvement," Land, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, March.
    2. Martínez-Fernández, Julia & Esteve-Selma, Miguel Angel & Baños-González, Isabel & Carreño, Francisca & Moreno, Angeles, 2013. "Sustainability of Mediterranean irrigated agro-landscapes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 248(C), pages 11-19.
    3. Meyer, Spencer R. & Johnson, Michelle L. & Lilieholm, Robert J. & Cronan, Christopher S., 2014. "Development of a stakeholder-driven spatial modeling framework for strategic landscape planning using Bayesian networks across two urban-rural gradients in Maine, USA," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 291(C), pages 42-57.

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