IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v227y2012icp72-81.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Can phenological shifts compensate for adverse effects of climate change on butterfly metapopulation viability?

Author

Listed:
  • Cormont, Anouk
  • Jochem, René
  • Malinowska, Agnieszka
  • Verboom, Jana
  • WallisDeVries, Michiel F.
  • Opdam, Paul

Abstract

The interaction between climate change and habitat fragmentation has been presented as a deadly anthropogenic cocktail. We cannot stop climate change, but it is within our circle of influence as ecologists to suggest landscape adaptation. Detailed population models that take into account climate change are considerably needed. We explore a detailed individual-based spatially explicit metapopulation model of a univoltine butterfly species where all processes are affected by daily weather, using historical daily weather data and future daily projections as input, in order to examine responses of a butterfly population in landscapes under various states of fragmentation and two climate change scenarios. This tool is used to investigate how landscapes could be adapted to compensate for possible negative impacts of climate change on population performance. We find that our model butterfly metapopulation was not only able to escape adverse conditions in summer by phenological shifts, but even to benefit from climatic warming. Varying either the amount of suitable habitat or patch size revealed a sharp threshold in population viability. In this particular case, however, the threshold was not affected by climate change and climate-dependent landscape adaptation was not required. The model presented here can be adapted for other species and applied to investigate scenarios for landscape adaptation.

Suggested Citation

  • Cormont, Anouk & Jochem, René & Malinowska, Agnieszka & Verboom, Jana & WallisDeVries, Michiel F. & Opdam, Paul, 2012. "Can phenological shifts compensate for adverse effects of climate change on butterfly metapopulation viability?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 72-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:227:y:2012:i:c:p:72-81
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380011005850
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terry L. Root & Jeff T. Price & Kimberly R. Hall & Stephen H. Schneider & Cynthia Rosenzweig & J. Alan Pounds, 2003. "Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 57-60, January.
    2. Camille Parmesan & Gary Yohe, 2003. "A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems," Nature, Nature, vol. 421(6918), pages 37-42, January.
    3. M. S. Warren & J. K. Hill & J. A. Thomas & J. Asher & R. Fox & B. Huntley & D. B. Roy & M. G. Telfer & S. Jeffcoate & P. Harding & G. Jeffcoate & S. G. Willis & J. N. Greatorex-Davies & D. Moss & C. D, 2001. "Rapid responses of British butterflies to opposing forces of climate and habitat change," Nature, Nature, vol. 414(6859), pages 65-69, November.
    4. C. D. Thomas & E. J. Bodsworth & R. J. Wilson & A. D. Simmons & Z. G. Davies & M. Musche & L. Conradt, 2001. "Ecological and evolutionary processes at expanding range margins," Nature, Nature, vol. 411(6837), pages 577-581, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Radchuk, Viktoriia & Johst, Karin & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Grimm, Volker & Schtickzelle, Nicolas, 2013. "Behind the scenes of population viability modeling: Predicting butterfly metapopulation dynamics under climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 259(C), pages 62-73.
    2. Cormont, Anouk & Wieger Wamelink, G.W. & Jochem, René & WallisDeVries, Michiel F. & Wegman, Ruut M.A., 2013. "Host plant-mediated effects of climate change on the occurrence of the Alcon blue butterfly (Phengaris alcon)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 250(C), pages 329-337.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wesley R. Brooks & Stephen C. Newbold, 2013. "Ecosystem damages in integrated assessment models of climate change," NCEE Working Paper Series 201302, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Mar 2013.
    2. Singer, Alexander & Johst, Karin & Banitz, Thomas & Fowler, Mike S. & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Gutiérrez, Alvaro G. & Hartig, Florian & Krug, Rainer M. & Liess, Matthias & Matlack, Glenn & Meyer, Katrin M, 2016. "Community dynamics under environmental change: How can next generation mechanistic models improve projections of species distributions?," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 326(C), pages 63-74.
    3. Brooks, Wesley R. & Newbold, Stephen C., 2014. "An updated biodiversity nonuse value function for use in climate change integrated assessment models," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 342-349.
    4. McRae, Brad H. & Schumaker, Nathan H. & McKane, Robert B. & Busing, Richard T. & Solomon, Allen M. & Burdick, Connie A., 2008. "A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 77-91.
    5. Richard Tol, 2011. "Regulating knowledge monopolies: the case of the IPCC," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 108(4), pages 827-839, October.
    6. Fabina, Nicholas S. & Abbott, Karen C. & Gilman, R.Tucker, 2010. "Sensitivity of plant–pollinator–herbivore communities to changes in phenology," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(3), pages 453-458.
    7. Ye, Qing & Yang, Xiaoguang & Dai, Shuwei & Chen, Guangsheng & Li, Yong & Zhang, Caixia, 2015. "Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 35-44.
    8. Brandt, Laura A. & Benscoter, Allison M. & Harvey, Rebecca & Speroterra, Carolina & Bucklin, David & Romañach, Stephanie S. & Watling, James I. & Mazzotti, Frank J., 2017. "Comparison of climate envelope models developed using expert-selected variables versus statistical selection," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 345(C), pages 10-20.
    9. Annie Paradis & Joe Elkinton & Katharine Hayhoe & John Buonaccorsi, 2008. "Role of winter temperature and climate change on the survival and future range expansion of the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae) in eastern North America," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 13(5), pages 541-554, June.
    10. Robert J. Knell & Stephen J. Thackeray, 2016. "Voltinism and resilience to climate-induced phenological mismatch," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 525-539, August.
    11. Rowell, Jonathan T., 2009. "The limitation of species range: A consequence of searching along resource gradients," Theoretical Population Biology, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 216-227.
    12. Lee Hannah & Marc Steele & Emily Fung & Pablo Imbach & Lorriane Flint & Alan Flint, 2017. "Climate change influences on pollinator, forest, and farm interactions across a climate gradient," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 63-75, March.
    13. Felix Neff & Fränzi Korner-Nievergelt & Emmanuel Rey & Matthias Albrecht & Kurt Bollmann & Fabian Cahenzli & Yannick Chittaro & Martin M. Gossner & Carlos Martínez-Núñez & Eliane S. Meier & Christian , 2022. "Different roles of concurring climate and regional land-use changes in past 40 years’ insect trends," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    14. Zdeněk Laštůvka, 2009. "Climate change and its possible influence on the occurrence and importance of insect pests," Plant Protection Science, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 45(SpecialIs), pages 53-62.
    15. Yingjie Niu & Zhentao Zou, 2024. "Robust Abatement Policy with Uncertainty About Environmental Disasters," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 87(4), pages 933-965, April.
    16. Disha Sachan & Pankaj Kumar & Md. Saquib Saharwardi, 2022. "Contemporary climate change velocity for near-surface temperatures over India," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 173(3), pages 1-19, August.
    17. Ferenc L. Toth & Eva Hizsnyik, 2005. "Managing The Inconceivable: Participatory Assessments Of Impacts And Responses To Extreme Climate Change," Working Papers FNU-74, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
    18. Víctor Rincón & Javier Velázquez & Derya Gülçin & Aida López-Sánchez & Carlos Jiménez & Ali Uğur Özcan & Juan Carlos López-Almansa & Tomás Santamaría & Daniel Sánchez-Mata & Kerim Çiçek, 2023. "Mapping Priority Areas for Connectivity of Yellow-Winged Darter ( Sympetrum flaveolum , Linnaeus 1758) under Climate Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-39, January.
    19. Elizabeth C Elliott & Stephen J Cornell, 2013. "Are Anomalous Invasion Speeds Robust to Demographic Stochasticity?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 8(7), pages 1-8, July.
    20. Lucie Kuczynski & Mathieu Chevalier & Pascal Laffaille & Marion Legrand & Gaël Grenouillet, 2017. "Indirect effect of temperature on fish population abundances through phenological changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:227:y:2012:i:c:p:72-81. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.