Modelling the carbon cycle of Siena Province (Tuscany, central Italy)

Since carbon dioxide (CO2) is the major greenhouse gas emitted by human activities, it is necessary to assess its sources and sinks, simulating the complex dynamics of CO2 flows involved in the carbon balance. To understand the advantages of carbon models for the political and environmental management of a region, we model the carbon cycle of Siena Province, a fairly large area in Tuscany (central Italy). The model develops the socio-ecological processes that determine the anthropogenic emissions and removals of CO2 from 2006 to 2016. We also include sources of the powerful greenhouse gas methane (CH4), such as landfills, wastewater treatment, combustion of fossil fuels and livestock. We then estimate the carbon footprint of Siena Province and elaborate six scenarios of emission reduction. The dynamic model proposed in this paper provides a good quantitative estimation of variations in emissions of CO2 and CH4 on a local scale, quantifying present and future sources and sinks of carbon in the study area. The scenarios of emission reduction are useful for assessing regional management in time. Economic aspects are not considered in the scenarios of emission reduction, because while the economy influences the choice of solutions it does not affect the model results. Siena Province therefore has an instrument for setting guidelines for good management of the resources and natural capital it administers; the model improves as it is updated year by year.