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Understanding alpine tree line dynamics: An individual-based model

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  • Wallentin, Gudrun
  • Tappeiner, Ulrike
  • Strobl, Josef
  • Tasser, Erich

Abstract

In addition to the effects of climate change, land use change is expected to trigger dynamic processes that may shift alpine tree lines upwards. To gain a conceptual understanding of the spatio-temporal processes shaping tree line patterns, we developed an individual-based and spatially-explicit model of spontaneous forest regeneration at the alpine tree line. Remote sensing data were integrated with the succession processes for individual trees in an object based image analysis approach. The model presented here predicts patterns of natural forest regeneration on a summer pasture in the Austrian Central Alps between 1954 and 2006. Different model scenarios are compared to the actual forest regeneration during the study period to validate the model's structure and its sensitivity to changing input parameters. The model's main process parameters are tested in four scenarios: A baseline scenario with the most likely input parameters derived from empirical studies in the literature; and three scenarios with differing parameters for seed production, seed dispersal kernel, and seedling competition with the ground vegetation. The tests largely confirm the model's formulation. The baseline scenario correctly predicts a significant upwards shift of the tree line elevation. Moreover it is demonstrated that (1) fecundity is a crucial factor in the expansion of forest into open land, (2) land cover and land use history have a significant impact on the emergence of forest regeneration patterns and (3) the dispersal kernel of Norway spruce has a long-distance component. We thus identified the key processes operating under environmental change from the characteristics of spatial changes in tree line patterns over the last 50 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Wallentin, Gudrun & Tappeiner, Ulrike & Strobl, Josef & Tasser, Erich, 2008. "Understanding alpine tree line dynamics: An individual-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(3), pages 235-246.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:218:y:2008:i:3:p:235-246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.07.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ran Nathan & Gabriel G. Katul & Henry S. Horn & Suvi M. Thomas & Ram Oren & Roni Avissar & Stephen W. Pacala & Simon A. Levin, 2002. "Mechanisms of long-distance dispersal of seeds by wind," Nature, Nature, vol. 418(6896), pages 409-413, July.
    2. Kessler, Michael & Böhner, Jürgen & Kluge, Jürgen, 2007. "Modelling tree height to assess climatic conditions at tree lines in the Bolivian Andes," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 223-233.
    3. Sagnard, Fabrice & Pichot, Christian & Dreyfus, Philippe & Jordano, Pedro & Fady, Bruno, 2007. "Modelling seed dispersal to predict seedling recruitment: Recolonization dynamics in a plantation forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 464-474.
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    1. Fondevilla, Cristian & Àngels Colomer, M. & Fillat, Federico & Tappeiner, Ulrike, 2016. "Using a new PDP modelling approach for land-use and land-cover change predictions: A case study in the Stubai Valley (Central Alps)," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 322(C), pages 101-114.
    2. Díaz-Varela, Ramón Alberto & Colombo, Roberto & Meroni, Michele & Calvo-Iglesias, María Silvia & Buffoni, Armando & Tagliaferri, Antonio, 2010. "Spatio-temporal analysis of alpine ecotones: A spatial explicit model targeting altitudinal vegetation shifts," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(4), pages 621-633.
    3. Vacchiano, Giorgio & Ascoli, Davide & Berzaghi, Fabio & Lucas-Borja, Manuel Esteban & Caignard, Thomas & Collalti, Alessio & Mairota, Paola & Palaghianu, Ciprian & Reyer, Christopher P.O. & Sanders, T, 2018. "Reproducing reproduction: How to simulate mast seeding in forest models," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 40-53.
    4. M. Didion & A. Kupferschmid & A. Wolf & H. Bugmann, 2011. "Ungulate herbivory modifies the effects of climate change on mountain forests," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(3), pages 647-669, December.
    5. Yi Tang & Mingyu Liu & Zhanli Sun, 2020. "Indirect Effects of Grazing on Wind-Dispersed Elm Seeds in Sparse Woodlands of Northern China," Land, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Koniak, Gili & Noy-Meir, Imanuel, 2009. "A hierarchical, multi-scale, management-responsive model of Mediterranean vegetation dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 220(8), pages 1148-1158.

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