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Reproduction of olive tree habitat suitability for global change impact assessment

Author

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  • Moriondo, M.
  • Stefanini, F.M.
  • Bindi, M.

Abstract

The olive tree is so typical of the Mediterranean climate that its presence in a territory qualifies the climate of this as Mediterranean. Many clues indicated that in the past olive cultivation limits moved northward or southward in the Northern Hemisphere according to warmer or cooler climate, respectively. This makes the olive tree cultivation area a possible biological indicator of changes in climate and the identification of the climatological parameters that limit its cultivation plays an important role for climate change impact assessment. In this work, three different approaches were compared, with the aim to compare methodologies suited to predict olive tree distribution over the Mediterranean basin: two classifiers (Random Forest, RF and an Artificial Neural Network, ANN) and a spatial model to infer climatic limiters of plant distribution (CLPD). These methodologies were applied within a framework including a geographical information system (GIS), which spatially defined olive tree cultivated area, and climatological informative layers (average temperature and cumulated rainfall, 50km×50km), which were used as predictor variables. The results indicated that RF achieved on the whole, the lowest classification error (113 misclassified cases on 1906 test cases) followed by ANN (128 cases) and CLPD (153 cases). A validation test, performed over areas out of the Mediterranean basin where olive tree is cultivated (i.e. California and Southern Australia), confirmed the goodness of the RF fitted model in predicting olive tree suitable areas. In general, climatic predictor variables of the coldest and warmest periods of the year were the most significant in determining the limits of suitable olive cultivation area for these methodologies. In particular, temperature of January and July and rainfall of October and July were the climatic predictor variables having highest significance for both RF and ANN. Temperature of January >2°C, of July >20°C and cumulated annual rainfall >240mm were the bounds found in the spatial model. The fitted RF model, coupled with the results of both Regional and General Circulation Model, was finally proposed to assess climate change impact on olive tree cultivated area in the Mediterranean basin.

Suggested Citation

  • Moriondo, M. & Stefanini, F.M. & Bindi, M., 2008. "Reproduction of olive tree habitat suitability for global change impact assessment," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 218(1), pages 95-109.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:218:y:2008:i:1:p:95-109
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.06.024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gian-Reto Walther & Eric Post & Peter Convey & Annette Menzel & Camille Parmesan & Trevor J. C. Beebee & Jean-Marc Fromentin & Ove Hoegh-Guldberg & Franz Bairlein, 2002. "Ecological responses to recent climate change," Nature, Nature, vol. 416(6879), pages 389-395, March.
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    1. Maselli, Fabio & Chiesi, Marta & Brilli, Lorenzo & Moriondo, Marco, 2012. "Simulation of olive fruit yield in Tuscany through the integration of remote sensing and ground data," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 244(C), pages 1-12.
    2. Muhammed Mustafa Özdel & Beyza Ustaoğlu & İsa Cürebal, 2024. "Modeling of the Potential Distribution Areas Suitable for Olive ( Olea europaea L.) in Türkiye from a Climate Change Perspective," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 14(9), pages 1-18, September.
    3. S. M. Alfieri & M. Riccardi & M. Menenti & A. Basile & A. Bonfante & F. Lorenzi, 2019. "Adaptability of global olive cultivars to water availability under future Mediterranean climate," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 435-466, March.
    4. Filippo Gambella & Leonardo Bianchini & Massimo Cecchini & Gianluca Egidi & Agostino Ferrara & Luca Salvati & Andrea Colantoni & Donato Morea, 2021. "Moving toward the north? The spatial shift of olive groves in Italy," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(4), pages 129-135.
    5. Ayse Yavuz Ozalp & Halil Akinci, 2023. "Evaluation of Land Suitability for Olive ( Olea europaea L.) Cultivation Using the Random Forest Algorithm," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, June.

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