IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v203y2007i3p243-256.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Global warming and human activity: A model for studying the potential instability of the carbon dioxide/temperature feedback mechanism

Author

Listed:
  • Alexiadis, Alessio

Abstract

In this paper, control theory is used to study the connection between human activities and global warming. A feedback model is proposed and tested against temperature and carbon dioxide concentration historical data. Four scenarios are taken into account and simulated by the model; stability analysis is also discussed. The model proposed here simulates the historical data correctly and the scenarios show that, even in the case of dramatic reduction of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission, the temperature will not decrease for a certain time. Stability analysis reveals a complex pole near the unit circle. This means that, although the system at the moment is stable, it is very close to becoming unstable with unpredictable consequences on climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexiadis, Alessio, 2007. "Global warming and human activity: A model for studying the potential instability of the carbon dioxide/temperature feedback mechanism," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 243-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:203:y:2007:i:3:p:243-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438000600576X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Erratum: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6813), pages 750-750, December.
    2. Robert K. Kaufmann & David I. Stern, 1997. "Evidence for human influence on climate from hemispheric temperature relations," Nature, Nature, vol. 388(6637), pages 39-44, July.
    3. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6809), pages 184-187, November.
    4. Hui Liu & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2003. "Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 0307E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Viola, Flavio M. & Paiva, Susana L.D. & Savi, Marcelo A., 2010. "Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(16), pages 1964-1978.
    2. Zhi Wang & Fengwan Zhang & Shaoquan Liu & Dingde Xu, 2023. "Land Use Structure Optimization and Ecological Benefit Evaluation in Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration Based on Carbon Neutrality," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, May.
    3. Rui Bian & Anzhou Zhao & Lidong Zou & Xianfeng Liu & Ruihao Xu & Ziyang Li, 2024. "Simulation and Prediction of Land Use Change and Carbon Emission under Multiple Development Scenarios at the City Level: A Case Study of Xi’an, China," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Dubey, Ved Prakash & Dubey, Sarvesh & Kumar, Devendra & Singh, Jagdev, 2021. "A computational study of fractional model of atmospheric dynamics of carbon dioxide gas," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. Eliseev, Alexey V. & Mokhov, Igor I., 2008. "Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 127-132.
    6. Likasiri, Chulin & Duangdai, Eakkapong & Pongvuthithum, Radom, 2014. "Mathematical model on the effects of global climate change and decreasing forest cover on seasonal rainfall in Northern Thailand," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 272(C), pages 388-393.
    7. Ilhan, Esin & Veeresha, P. & Baskonus, Haci Mehmet, 2021. "Fractional approach for a mathematical model of atmospheric dynamics of CO2 gas with an efficient method," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    8. Anisur, M.R. & Mahfuz, M.H. & Kibria, M.A. & Saidur, R. & Metselaar, I.H.S.C. & Mahlia, T.M.I., 2013. "Curbing global warming with phase change materials for energy storage," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 23-30.
    9. Haiyan Meng & Yi Hu & Zuoji Dong, 2023. "Landscape Pattern Change and Ecological Effect in a Typical Mountain–Oasis–Desert Region in the Northwest Region of China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(5), pages 1-19, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Viola, Flavio M. & Paiva, Susana L.D. & Savi, Marcelo A., 2010. "Analysis of the global warming dynamics from temperature time series," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 221(16), pages 1964-1978.
    2. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2018. "And then he wasn't a she : Climate change and green transitions in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Working Papers hal-03443464, HAL.
    3. Govind, Ajit & Chen, Jing Ming & Bernier, Pierre & Margolis, Hank & Guindon, Luc & Beaudoin, Andre, 2011. "Spatially distributed modeling of the long-term carbon balance of a boreal landscape," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(15), pages 2780-2795.
    4. Claudio Morana & Giacomo Sbrana, 2017. "Temperature Anomalies, Radiative Forcing and ENSO," Working Papers 2017.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    5. Eliseev, Alexey V. & Mokhov, Igor I., 2008. "Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 127-132.
    6. Brovkin, Victor & Cherkinsky, Alexander & Goryachkin, Sergey, 2008. "Estimating soil carbon turnover using radiocarbon data: A case-study for European Russia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 178-187.
    7. Ulaganathan, Kandasamy & Goud, Sravanthi & Reddy, Madhavi & Kayalvili, Ulaganathan, 2017. "Genome engineering for breaking barriers in lignocellulosic bioethanol production," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 1080-1107.
    8. Brazhnik, Ksenia & Shugart, H.H., 2016. "SIBBORK: A new spatially-explicit gap model for boreal forest," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 320(C), pages 182-196.
    9. Kai Yin & Dengsheng Lu & Yichen Tian & Qianjun Zhao & Chao Yuan, 2014. "Evaluation of Carbon and Oxygen Balances in Urban Ecosystems Using Land Use/Land Cover and Statistical Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    10. Agudelo, César Augusto Ruiz & Bustos, Sandra Liliana Hurtado & Moreno, Carmen Alicia Parrado, 2020. "Modeling interactions among multiple ecosystem services. A critical review," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 429(C).
    11. Ouardighi, Fouad El & Sim, Jeong Eun & Kim, Bowon, 2016. "Pollution accumulation and abatement policy in a supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 248(3), pages 982-996.
    12. Kim, Hyeyoung & House, Lisa A. & KIm, Tae-Kyun, 2016. "Consumer perceptions of climate change and willingness to pay for mandatory implementation of low carbon labels: the case of South Korea," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 19(4), October.
    13. Guoju, Xiao & Weixiang, Liu & Qiang, Xu & Zhaojun, Sun & Jing, Wang, 2005. "Effects of temperature increase and elevated CO2 concentration, with supplemental irrigation, on the yield of rain-fed spring wheat in a semiarid region of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 243-255, June.
    14. Sogol Moradian & Farhad Yazdandoost, 2021. "Seasonal meteorological drought projections over Iran using the NMME data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 1089-1107, August.
    15. Farrelly, Damien J. & Everard, Colm D. & Fagan, Colette C. & McDonnell, Kevin P., 2013. "Carbon sequestration and the role of biological carbon mitigation: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 712-727.
    16. Marc Kennedy & Clive Anderson & Anthony O'Hagan & Mark Lomas & Ian Woodward & John Paul Gosling & Andreas Heinemeyer, 2008. "Quantifying uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 171(1), pages 109-135, January.
    17. Yonghua Li & Song Yao & Hezhou Jiang & Huarong Wang & Qinchuan Ran & Xinyun Gao & Xinyi Ding & Dandong Ge, 2022. "Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Prediction of Carbon Storage: An Integrated Framework Based on the MOP–PLUS–InVEST Model and an Applied Case Study in Hangzhou, East China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Sara J. Germain & James A. Lutz, 2020. "Climate extremes may be more important than climate means when predicting species range shifts," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(1), pages 579-598, November.
    19. Xiongwen Chen & Wilfred Post & Richard Norby & Aimée Classen, 2011. "Modeling soil respiration and variations in source components using a multi-factor global climate change experiment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 107(3), pages 459-480, August.
    20. Wang, Tao & Yu, Wei & Le Moullec, Yann & Liu, Fei & Xiong, Yili & He, Hui & Lu, Jiahui & Hsu, Emily & Fang, Mengxiang & Luo, Zhongyang, 2017. "Solvent regeneration by novel direct non-aqueous gas stripping process for post-combustion CO2 capture," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 23-32.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:203:y:2007:i:3:p:243-256. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.