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Global warming and human activity: A model for studying the potential instability of the carbon dioxide/temperature feedback mechanism

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  • Alexiadis, Alessio

Abstract

In this paper, control theory is used to study the connection between human activities and global warming. A feedback model is proposed and tested against temperature and carbon dioxide concentration historical data. Four scenarios are taken into account and simulated by the model; stability analysis is also discussed. The model proposed here simulates the historical data correctly and the scenarios show that, even in the case of dramatic reduction of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emission, the temperature will not decrease for a certain time. Stability analysis reveals a complex pole near the unit circle. This means that, although the system at the moment is stable, it is very close to becoming unstable with unpredictable consequences on climate change.

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  • Alexiadis, Alessio, 2007. "Global warming and human activity: A model for studying the potential instability of the carbon dioxide/temperature feedback mechanism," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 203(3), pages 243-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:203:y:2007:i:3:p:243-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.11.020
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    1. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Erratum: Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6813), pages 750-750, December.
    2. Robert K. Kaufmann & David I. Stern, 1997. "Evidence for human influence on climate from hemispheric temperature relations," Nature, Nature, vol. 388(6637), pages 39-44, July.
    3. Peter M. Cox & Richard A. Betts & Chris D. Jones & Steven A. Spall & Ian J. Totterdell, 2000. "Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model," Nature, Nature, vol. 408(6809), pages 184-187, November.
    4. Hui Liu & Gabriel Rodriguez, 2003. "Human Activities and Global Warming: A Cointegration Analysis," Working Papers 0307E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
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    5. Eliseev, Alexey V. & Mokhov, Igor I., 2008. "Eventual saturation of the climate–carbon cycle feedback studied with a conceptual model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 127-132.
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