IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v244y2024ics0165176524004555.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impact of AI on the workforce: Tasks versus jobs?

Author

Listed:
  • Bonney, Kathryn
  • Breaux, Cory
  • Buffington, Catherine
  • Dinlersoz, Emin
  • Foster, Lucia
  • Goldschlag, Nathan
  • Haltiwanger, John
  • Kroff, Zachary
  • Savage, Keith

Abstract

Will the adoption of AI by businesses substitute for worker tasks or jobs? This is a core question for which relatively scarce evidence exists—especially in the wake of recent advances in generative AI. Using a new large-scale business survey by the U.S. Census Bureau, we find that AI use is having a much greater impact on worker tasks than on employment levels at the firm level. About 27% of firms using AI report replacing worker tasks, but only about 5% experience employment change due to AI use. These rates are expected to increase to nearly 35% and 12%, respectively, in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Bonney, Kathryn & Breaux, Cory & Buffington, Catherine & Dinlersoz, Emin & Foster, Lucia & Goldschlag, Nathan & Haltiwanger, John & Kroff, Zachary & Savage, Keith, 2024. "The impact of AI on the workforce: Tasks versus jobs?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524004555
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111971
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176524004555
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2024.111971?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Autor, 2024. "Applying AI to Rebuild Middle Class Jobs," NBER Working Papers 32140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Kristina McElheran & J. Frank Li & Erik Brynjolfsson & Zachary Kroff & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & Nikolas Zolas, 2024. "AI adoption in America: Who, what, and where," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 375-415, March.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & Gary W. Anderson & David N. Beede & Catherine Buffington & Eric E. Childress & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia S. Foster & Nathan Goldschlag & John C. Haltiwanger & Zachary Kroff & Pascual Res, 2024. "Automation and the Workforce: A Firm-Level View from the 2019 Annual Business Survey," NBER Chapters, in: Technology, Productivity, and Economic Growth, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Babina, Tania & Fedyk, Anastassia & He, Alex & Hodson, James, 2024. "Artificial intelligence, firm growth, and product innovation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    5. Kathryn Bonney & Cory Breaux & Cathy Buffington & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia S. Foster & Nathan Goldschlag & John C. Haltiwanger & Zachary Kroff & Keith Savage, 2024. "Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey," NBER Working Papers 32319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Tyna Eloundou & Sam Manning & Pamela Mishkin & Daniel Rock, 2023. "GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models," Papers 2303.10130, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2023.
    7. Catherine Buffington & Lucia Foster & Colin Shevlin, 2023. "Measuring Business Trends and Outlook through a New Survey," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 140-144, May.
    8. Flavio Calvino & Luca Fontanelli, 2023. "A portrait of AI adopters across countries: Firm characteristics, assets’ complementarities and productivity," OECD Science, Technology and Industry Working Papers 2023/02, OECD Publishing.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Flavio Calvino & Luca Fontanelli, 2024. "AI Users Are Not All Alike: The Characteristics of French Firms Buying and Developing AI," CESifo Working Paper Series 11466, CESifo.
    2. Flavio Calvino & Chiara Criscuolo & Luca Fontanelli & Lionel Nesta & Elena Verdolini, 2024. "The role of human capital for AI adoption: Evidence from French firms," CEP Discussion Papers dp2055, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    3. Fabian Kosse & Tim Leffler & Arna Woemmel, 2024. "Digital Skills: Social Disparities and the Impact of Early Mentoring," CESifo Working Paper Series 11570, CESifo.
    4. Alexander Bick & Adam Blandin & David Deming, 2023. "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI," On the Economy 98843, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    5. Christoph Riedl & Eric Bogert, 2024. "Effects of AI Feedback on Learning, the Skill Gap, and Intellectual Diversity," Papers 2409.18660, arXiv.org.
    6. Kristina McElheran & J. Frank Li & Erik Brynjolfsson & Zachary Kroff & Emin Dinlersoz & Lucia Foster & Nikolas Zolas, 2024. "AI adoption in America: Who, what, and where," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 375-415, March.
    7. Draca, Mirko & Nathan, Max & Nguyen-Tien, Viet & Oliveira-Cunha, Juliana & Rosso, Anna & Valero, Anna, 2024. "The New Wave? The Role of Human Capital and STEM Skills in Technology Adoption in the UK," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1521, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    8. Dario Guarascio & Jelena Reljic & Roman Stollinger, 2023. "Artificial Intelligence and Employment: A Look into the Crystal Ball," LEM Papers Series 2023/34, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    9. Antonio Minniti & Klaus Prettner & Francesco Venturini, 2024. "Unslicing the pie: AI innovation and the labor share in European regions," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp369, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    10. Fossen, Frank M. & McLemore, Trevor & Sorgner, Alina, 2024. "Artificial Intelligence and Entrepreneurship," IZA Discussion Papers 17055, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Ben Etheridge & Aitor Irastorza-Fadrique & Michael J. Böhm, 2024. "The impact of labour demand shocks when occupational labour supplies are heterogeneous," IFS Working Papers W24/28, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    12. Charles Hoffreumon & Chris Forman & Nicolas van Zeebroeck, 2024. "Make or buy your artificial intelligence? Complementarities in technology sourcing," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 452-479, March.
    13. Pawel Gmyrek & Hernan Winkler & Santiago Garganta, 2024. "Buffer or Bottleneck? Employment Exposure to Generative AI and the Digital Divide in Latin America," CEDLAS, Working Papers 0340, CEDLAS, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    14. Alessia Lo Turco & Alessandro Sterlacchini, 2024. "Factors Enhancing Ai Adoption By Firms. Evidence From France," Working Papers 486, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    15. Brey, Björn & van der Marel, Erik, 2024. "The role of human-capital in artificial intelligence adoption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 244(C).
    16. Heluo, Yuxi & Fabel, Oliver, 2024. "Job computerization, occupational employment and wages: A comparative study of the United States, Germany, and Japan," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    17. Shigeru Fujita & Madison Perry, 2024. "Nonworking Parents or Hungry Children," Economic Insights, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, vol. 9(4), pages 2-9, December.
    18. Erik Brynjolfsson & Catherine Buffington & Nathan Goldschlag & J. Frank Li & Javier Miranda & Robert Seamans, 2023. "The Characteristics and Geographic Distribution of Robot Hubs in U.S. Manufacturing Establishments," Working Papers 23-14, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    19. Carvajal, Daniel & Franco, Catalina & Isaksson, Siri, 2024. "Will Artificial Intelligence Get in the Way of Achieving Gender Equality?," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 3/2024, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics, revised 31 Oct 2024.
    20. Enrico Maria Fenoaltea & Dario Mazzilli & Aurelio Patelli & Angelica Sbardella & Andrea Tacchella & Andrea Zaccaria & Marco Trombetti & Luciano Pietronero, 2024. "Follow the money: a startup-based measure of AI exposure across occupations, industries and regions," Papers 2412.04924, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2024.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Artificial Intelligence; Technology adoption; Firm performance; Task replacement; Labor substitution; Technology and employment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L20 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - General
    • L23 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Organization of Production
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • M20 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - General
    • M21 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Business Economics - - - Business Economics
    • M51 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Personnel Economics - - - Firm Employment Decisions; Promotions
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:244:y:2024:i:c:s0165176524004555. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.