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Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Zefeng Chen
  • Zhengyang Jiang
  • Hanno Lustig
  • Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh
  • Mindy Z. Xiaolan

Abstract

We study three centuries of U.K. fiscal history. Before WW-I, when the U.K. dominated global bond markets, the U.K.’s government debt was not always fully backed by its future surpluses, even after accounting for the seigniorage revenue from convenience yields. As predicted by theories of safe asset determination, investors concentrate extra fiscal capacity in a single country, the global safe asset supplier, based on relative macro fundamentals, and its debt growth may temporarily outstrip what is warranted by its own macro fundamentals. After the relative deterioration in U.K. fundamentals, due to the run-up in debt during WW-I and WW-II, bond investors focused exclusively on the U.K’s own macro fundamentals. Since then the U.K. debt has been fully backed by surpluses.

Suggested Citation

  • Zefeng Chen & Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2022. "Exorbitant Privilege Gained and Lost: Fiscal Implications," NBER Working Papers 30059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30059
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2024. "What Drives Variation in the U.S. Debt‐to‐Output Ratio? The Dogs that Did not Bark," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2603-2665, August.
    2. Zhengyang Jiang, 2024. "Exorbitant Privilege: A Safe-Asset View," CESifo Working Paper Series 11279, CESifo.
    3. Korevaar, Matthijs, 2023. "Reaching for yield and the housing market: Evidence from 18th-century Amsterdam," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(3), pages 273-296.
    4. Yang, Bohan & Wang, Bin, 2024. "The time-varying U.S. treasury bond demand elasticity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Gregory Phelan, 2023. "Fragility of Safe Assets," Working Papers 23-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    6. Thomas M. Eisenbach & Gregory Phelan, 2022. "Fragility of Safe Asset Markets," Staff Reports 1026, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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