IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v224y2023ics0165176523000538.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Central bank balance sheet, money and inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Reynard, Samuel

Abstract

Strong central banks’ balance sheet expansions in response to economic crises have been followed by different inflation paths. This paper shows that whether or not those expansions resulted in a substantial increase in inflation is function of the associated broad money expansion, which depends on whether the private sector was part of the money creation process as an intermediary to the central bank financing the government. Inflation can be explained by an equilibrium analysis based on the quantity theory of money. This analysis explains why inflation remained low after quantitative easing in the US following the global financial crisis, but has substantially and persistently increased after the Covid-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Reynard, Samuel, 2023. "Central bank balance sheet, money and inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:224:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523000538
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111028
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176523000538
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.111028?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gord86-1.
    2. Nathan Balke & Robert J. Gordon, 1986. "Appendix B: Historical Data," NBER Chapters, in: The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change, pages 781-850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Lucas, Robert E., 1988. "Money demand in the United States: A quantitative review," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 137-167, January.
    4. John Greenwood & Steve H. Hanke, 2021. "On Monetary Growth and Inflation in Leading Economies, 2021‐2022: Relative Prices and the Overall Price Level," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 33(4), pages 39-51, December.
    5. Michael D. Bordo, 2014. "The Federal Reserve's Role: Actions Before, During, and After the 2008 Panic the Historical Context of the Great Contraction," Book Chapters, in: Martin Neil Baily & John B. Taylor (ed.), Across the Great Divide: New Perspectives on the Financial Crisis, chapter 6, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    6. Milton Friedman & Anna J. Schwartz, 1963. "A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie63-1.
    7. Reynard, Samuel, 2007. "Maintaining low inflation: Money, interest rates, and policy stance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1441-1471, July.
    8. Greenwood, John & Hanke, Steve, 2021. "On Monetary Growth and Inflation in Leading Economies, 2021-2022:Relative Prices and the Overall Price Level," Studies in Applied Economics 198, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2023. "Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of U.S. Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 319, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    2. Michael D. Bordo & John V. Duca, 2023. "Money Matters: Broad Divisia Money and the Recovery of Nominal GDP from the COVID-19 Recession," Working Papers 2306, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    2. Michael D. Bordo & Arunima Sinha, 2016. "A Lesson from the Great Depression that the Fed Might Have Learned: A Comparison of the 1932 Open Market Purchases with Quantitative Easing," Economics Working Papers 16113, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    3. Margaret M. Jacobson & Eric M. Leeper & Bruce Preston, 2019. "Recovery of 1933," NBER Working Papers 25629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2017. "Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, And Financial Crises: Evidence From The American Record," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 55(1), pages 527-541, January.
    5. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Re-Examining the Contributions of Money and Banking Shocks to the US Great Depression," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 183-260, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Stephen D. Williamson, 1989. "Restrictions on Financial Intermediaries and Implications for Aggregate Fluctuations: Canada and the United States 1870–1913," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 303-350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Peter Kugler & Samuel Reynard, 2022. "Money and inflation in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 158(1), pages 1-13, December.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T., 1990. "Could a monetary base rule have prevented the great depression?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 3-26, August.
    9. Peter Kugler & Dr. Samuel Reynard, 2020. "Money, inflation and the financial crisis: the case of Switzerland," Working Papers 2020-16, Swiss National Bank.
    10. Samuel Reynard, 2012. "Assessing Potential Inflation Consequences of QE after Financial Crises," Working Paper Series WP12-22, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. Alfred A. Haug & Julie Tam, 2001. "A Closer Look at Long Run Money Demand," Working Papers 2002_09, York University, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2002.
    12. Robert L. Hetzel, 2009. "Should increased regulation of bank risk-taking come from regulators or from the market?," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 95(Spr), pages 161-200.
    13. Nelson, Edward, 2013. "Friedman's monetary economics in practice," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 59-83.
    14. James C. MacGee & Pedro S. Amaral, 2010. "A Multi-sectoral Approach to the U.S. Great Depression," 2010 Meeting Papers 1242, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    16. Thomas L. Hogan & Daniel J. Smith, 2022. "War, money & economy: Inflation and production in the Fed and pre-Fed periods," The Review of Austrian Economics, Springer;Society for the Development of Austrian Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 15-37, March.
    17. Christopher Baum & Clifford Thies, 1998. "Reexamining the term structure of interest rates and the interwar demand for money," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 22(2), pages 5-12, June.
    18. Benati, Luca, 2009. "Long run evidence on money growth and inflation," Working Paper Series 1027, European Central Bank.
    19. Cooper, Russell & Ejarque, Joao, 1995. "Financial intermediation and the Great Depression: a multiple equilibrium interpretation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 285-323, December.
    20. Dwyer, Gerald P. & Lothian, James R., 2012. "International and historical dimensions of the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-9.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Central bank balance sheet; Inflation; Monetary aggregates; Quantitative easing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:224:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523000538. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.