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Revisiting vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Identifying the role of financial conditions in the distribution

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  • Szendrei, Tibor
  • Varga, Katalin

Abstract

Growth-at-Risk modelling has been a cornerstone for research and policymaking recently as a way to model tail risk in the macroeconomy. However, the majority of the research has been almost exclusively been done on US data. The aim of this paper is to utilise a variable selection framework to identify which variables are key in capturing the different parts of the GDP distribution for the Euro Area. Importantly this paper uses a methodology that can handle variable selection task in small sample settings.

Suggested Citation

  • Szendrei, Tibor & Varga, Katalin, 2023. "Revisiting vulnerable growth in the Euro Area: Identifying the role of financial conditions in the distribution," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:223:y:2023:i:c:s0165176523000150
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2023.110990
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hafemann, Lucas, 2023. "A house prices at risk approach for the German residential real estate market," Technical Papers 07/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Tibor Szendrei & Arnab Bhattacharjee & Mark E. Schaffer, 2024. "MIDAS-QR with 2-Dimensional Structure," Papers 2406.15157, arXiv.org.

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