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The causal relationship between social media sentiment and stock return: Experimental evidence from an online message forum

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  • Wang, Xinjie
  • Xiang, Zhiqiang
  • Xu, Weike
  • Yuan, Peixuan

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of sentiment in an online message forum on stock returns. Using a novel controlled experiment, we collect a large panel of messages with no fundamental information but strong sentiment and stock return data. We find a significant causal effect of social media sentiment on the same-day stock returns. The sentiment has no significant effects on stock returns on subsequent days. This effect is mainly driven by messages with positive sentiment, which has a strong positive impact on stock returns. Our results establish a causal relationship between social media sentiment and stock returns and highlight the risk of market manipulation via social media.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Xinjie & Xiang, Zhiqiang & Xu, Weike & Yuan, Peixuan, 2022. "The causal relationship between social media sentiment and stock return: Experimental evidence from an online message forum," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:216:y:2022:i:c:s0165176522001793
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2022.110598
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    2. Qing Liu & Hosung Son, 2024. "Methods for aggregating investor sentiment from social media," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, December.
    3. Zeitun, Rami & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Ahmad, Nasir & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "The impact of Twitter-based sentiment on US sectoral returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Adeabah, David & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Abdullah, Mohammad, 2023. "Effect of Russia–Ukraine war sentiment on blockchain and FinTech stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    5. Du, Rui & Mino, Ajkel & Wang, Jianghao & Zheng, Siqi, 2024. "Transboundary vegetation fire smoke and expressed sentiment: Evidence from Twitter," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    6. Halil D Kaya & Abhinav Maramraju & Anish Nallapu, 2023. "Social Media, Trading Volume, Volatility And Stock Prices," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 6, pages 40-50, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sentiment; Online message board; Stock return;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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