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The determinants of output losses during the Covid-19 pandemic

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  • Glocker, Christian
  • Piribauer, Philipp

Abstract

The global recession in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic was accompanied by a significant degree of heterogeneity in the economic contraction across countries. We use a rich data set and Bayesian model averaging techniques to identify the factors shaping the extent of heterogeneity. The results highlight the importance of adverse initial conditions (large contact-intensive service sector) and behavioural changes (increased voluntary spatial distancing) relative to the extent of public containment measures.

Suggested Citation

  • Glocker, Christian & Piribauer, Philipp, 2021. "The determinants of output losses during the Covid-19 pandemic," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:204:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521002007
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109923
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Michael König & Adalbert Winkler, 2020. "COVID-19 and Economic Growth: Does Good Government Performance Pay Off?," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 55(4), pages 224-231, July.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hind Alofaysan & Fatma Mabrouk & Jihen Bousrih, 2022. "Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Economic Performance: DSGE and Probit Investigations," Academic Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, Richtmann Publishing Ltd, vol. 11, July.
    2. Costas Siriopoulos & Sophia A. Kassapi, 2023. "Female Labor Participation and Mother’s Daycare in Greece Pre- and Post-COVID-19 Pandemic: A Regional Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-20, July.
    3. Papaioannou, Sotiris K., 2023. "ICT and economic resilience: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Lavopa, Alejandro & Donnelly, Carolina, 2023. "Socioeconomic resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. The role of industrial capabilities," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 44-57.
    5. Francis Kuriakose & Deepa Kylasam Iyer, 2024. "Initial conditions and cross-country macroeconomic impact during Covid-19," International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 19(1), pages 4-27.
    6. Sugata Marjit & Gouranga Gopal Das, 2021. "Contact-Intensity, Collapsing Entertainment Sector and Wage Inequality: A Finite Change Model of Covid-19 Impact," CESifo Working Paper Series 9311, CESifo.
    7. Vytautas Kuokštis & Ringailė Kuokštytė, 2023. "How Institutions Moderated the Pandemic's Economic Impact in EU Member States," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 503-525, March.
    8. Aquilante, Tommaso & Di Pace, Federico & Masolo, Riccardo M., 2022. "Exchange-rate and news: Evidence from the COVID pandemic," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 pandemic; Output contraction; Cross-country heterogeneity; Bayesian model averaging;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook

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