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The impact of COVID-19 on tail risk: Evidence from Nifty index options

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  • Agarwalla, Sobhesh Kumar
  • Varma, Jayanth R.
  • Virmani, Vineet

Abstract

We investigate the impact of COVID-19 using multiple forward-looking measures of uncertainty in Indian stock markets using liquid Nifty index options. The WHO declaration of COVID-19 as a pandemic coincides with a sharp rise in all measures of uncertainty considered, including option-implied volatility smiles, risk-neutral density, skewness, and kurtosis. We find that while subsequent government-imposed lockdowns and monetary easing induced a near-normalization of skewness and kurtosis, the volatility level remained elevated, demonstrating the importance of higher moments in capturing uncertainty during a pandemic. Structural breaks identified using the Bai–Perron methodology closely track the dates of significant announcements or interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Agarwalla, Sobhesh Kumar & Varma, Jayanth R. & Virmani, Vineet, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on tail risk: Evidence from Nifty index options," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 204(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:204:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521001555
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109878
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Sonali Jain & Jayanth R. Varma & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla, 2019. "Indian equity options: Smile, risk premiums, and efficiency," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 150-163, February.
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    4. Hanke, Michael & Kosolapova, Maria & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2020. "COVID-19 and market expectations: Evidence from option-implied densities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    5. Pinglin He & Yulong Sun & Ying Zhang & Tao Li, 2020. "COVID–19’s Impact on Stock Prices Across Different Sectors—An Event Study Based on the Chinese Stock Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 2198-2212, August.
    6. Allan M. Malz, 2014. "Simple and reliable way to compute option-based risk-neutral distributions," Staff Reports 677, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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    Cited by:

    1. Srivastava, Pranjal & Jacob, Joshy, 2022. "Risk information - normal markets and the COVID-19 pandemic period," IIMA Working Papers WP 2022-10-02, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    2. Graziano, Elvira Anna & Fattobene, Lucrezia & Ricci, Ornella & Scimone, Xenia, 2023. "Market reactions to Recovery Fund press releases during COVID-19: An event-study analysis," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    3. Sudarshan Kumar & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma & Vineet Virmani, 2023. "Harvesting the volatility smile in a large emerging market: A Dynamic Nelson–Siegel approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1615-1644, November.
    4. Sumit Saurav & Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Jayanth R. Varma, 2023. "Belief distortion near 52W high and low: Evidence from Indian equity options market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(11), pages 1531-1558, November.
    5. Li, Jianhui & Ruan, Xinfeng & Zhang, Jin E., 2022. "The price of COVID-19-induced uncertainty in the options market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    6. Sobhesh Kumar Agarwalla & Sumit Saurav & Jayanth R. Varma, 2022. "Lottery and bubble stocks and the cross‐section of option‐implied tail risks," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 231-249, February.
    7. Cui, Tianxiang & Ding, Shusheng & Jin, Huan & Zhang, Yongmin, 2023. "Portfolio constructions in cryptocurrency market: A CVaR-based deep reinforcement learning approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Option pricing; Risk-neutral density; Tail risk; Volatility smile; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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