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Macroeconomic shocks and Okun’s Law

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  • Ziegenbein, Alexander

Abstract

I propose a simple method to estimate a macro shock-specific Okun elasticity, which characterises by how much the unemployment rate falls when output increases by one percentage point because of a specific macroeconomic shock. Using data for the US, I consider government spending, tax, monetary policy, financial, technology, and oil shocks. I find the Okun elasticity is largely stable across shocks, but subtle differences emerge: (i) the elasticity is larger for financial shocks, (ii) the speed at which unemployment adjusts relative to output depends on the shock driving fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ziegenbein, Alexander, 2021. "Macroeconomic shocks and Okun’s Law," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:202:y:2021:i:c:s0165176521001038
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109826
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2004. "A New Measure of Monetary Shocks: Derivation and Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1055-1084, September.
    2. Barnichon, Regis & Mesters, Geert, 2021. "The Phillips multiplier," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 689-705.
    3. Karel Mertens & José Luis Montiel Olea, 2018. "Marginal Tax Rates and Income: New Time Series Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(4), pages 1803-1884.
    4. Neville Francis & Michael T. Owyang & Jennifer E. Roush & Riccardo DiCecio, 2014. "A Flexible Finite-Horizon Alternative to Long-Run Restrictions with an Application to Technology Shocks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 96(4), pages 638-647, October.
    5. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
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    8. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    9. Oscar Jorda & John Fernald & Fernanda Nechio & Mary Daly, 2013. "Okun’s Macroscope: Changes in the Cyclical Behavior of Productivity and the Comovement between Output and Unemployment," 2013 Meeting Papers 1155, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Johannes F. Wieland & Mu‐Jeung Yang, 2020. "Financial Dampening," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 52(1), pages 79-113, February.
    11. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Lee, Byoungchan, 2017. "A Note on Variance Decomposition with Local Projections," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8878h9r2, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    12. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    13. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Foroni, Claudia & Furlanetto, Francesco, 2022. "Explaining Deviations from Okun's Law," CEPR Discussion Papers 17369, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Knut Lehre Seip & Dan Zhang, 2022. "A High-Resolution Lead-Lag Analysis of US GDP, Employment, and Unemployment 1977–2021: Okun’s Law and the Puzzle of Jobless Recovery," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-16, October.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun’s Law; Instrumental variables; Economic fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C36 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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