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Unemployment fluctuations and nominal GDP targeting

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  • Billi, Roberto M.

Abstract

I evaluate the welfare performance of a target for the level of nominal GDP in a New Keynesian model with unemployment, accounting for a zero lower bound (ZLB) constraint on the nominal interest rate. Nominal GDP targeting is compared to employment targeting, a conventional Taylor rule, and the optimal monetary policy with commitment. I find that employment targeting is optimal when supply shocks are the source of fluctuations; however, facing demand shocks and the ZLB constraint, nominal GDP targeting can outperform substantially employment targeting.

Suggested Citation

  • Billi, Roberto M., 2020. "Unemployment fluctuations and nominal GDP targeting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:188:y:2020:i:c:s0165176520300161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.108970
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jordi Galí & Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2012. "Unemployment in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 329-360.
    2. Erceg, Christopher J. & Henderson, Dale W. & Levin, Andrew T., 2000. "Optimal monetary policy with staggered wage and price contracts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 281-313, October.
    3. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Financial Markets at the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 229-242, September.
    4. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Methods of policy accommodation at the interest-rate lower bound," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 185-288.
    5. Garín, Julio & Lester, Robert & Sims, Eric, 2016. "On the desirability of nominal GDP targeting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 21-44.
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    Cited by:

    1. Joaquín Bernal-Ramírez & Jair Ojeda-Joya & Camila Agudelo-Rivera & Felipe Clavijo-Ramírez & Carolina Durana-Ángel & Clark Granger-Castaño & Daniel Osorio-Rodríguez & Daniel Parra-Amado & José Pulido &, 2022. "Impacto macroeconómico del cambio climático en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 102, pages 1-62, July.
    2. Roberto M. Billi & Ulf Söderström & Carl E. Walsh, 2023. "The Role of Money in Monetary Policy at the Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(4), pages 681-716, June.
    3. Behailu Shiferaw Benti, 2021. "Was the Interest Rate Policy of the ECB too Loose? Insight from a Simple Taylor Rule," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 9(1), pages 19-28.
    4. Chen, Haixia & Le, Vo Phuong Mai & Meenagh, David & Minford, Patrick, 2023. "UK Monetary Policy in An Estimated DSGE Model with State-Dependent Price and Wage Contracts," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2023/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    5. Billi, Roberto M., 2022. "Inflation Targeting or Fiscal Activism?," Working Paper Series 412, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    6. Sara Boni & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "A Structural Analysis of Unemployment-Generating Supply Shocks with an Application to the US Pharmaceutical Industry," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS94, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Employment targeting; Optimal monetary policy; Taylor rule; ZLB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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