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Monetary Policy and Financial Markets at the Effective Lower Bound

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  • LARS E.O. SVENSSON

Abstract

I discuss what determines the effective lower bound (ELB) for the policy rate and argue that the ELB is not hard, but rather soft, and that it is probably slightly negative. I argue that, at the ELB, current output can be increased by (i) monetary policy that extends the period of credibly low policy rates and generates inflation expectations, (ii) financial‐stability policy—which is distinct from monetary policy—that reduces the spreads between market interest rates and the policy rate, and (iii) fiscal policy that increases the neutral real rate by reducing expected growth of government expenditure and increases potential output by increasing current government expenditure.

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  • Lars E.O. Svensson, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Financial Markets at the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 229-242, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:42:y:2010:i:s1:p:229-242
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1538-4616.2010.00337.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cúrdia, Vasco & Woodford, Michael, 2016. "Credit Frictions and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 30-65.
    2. Paul R. Krugman, 1998. "It's Baaack: Japan's Slump and the Return of the Liquidity Trap," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 137-206.
    3. Svensson, Lars E.O., 2009. "Transparency under Flexible Inflation Targeting: Experiences and Challenges," CEPR Discussion Papers 7213, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall.
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    2. Billi, Roberto M., 2020. "Unemployment fluctuations and nominal GDP targeting," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    3. Roberto M. Billi, 2020. "Output Gaps and Robust Monetary Policy Rules," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 125-152, March.
    4. Ashoka Mody & Milan Nedeljkovic, 2018. "Central Bank Policies and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Crisis," Working Papers 253, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    5. Billi, Roberto M., 2018. "Price level targeting and risk management," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 163-173.
    6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2020. "What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 39-95, December.
    7. Mody, Ashoka & Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2024. "Central bank policies and financial markets: Lessons from the euro crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    8. Giuseppe Galloppo & Giovanni Trovato, 2017. "Fundamental driver of fund style drift," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(2), pages 99-123, March.
    9. Ashoka Mody & Milan Nedeljkovic, 2018. "Central Bank Policies and Financial Markets: Lessons from the Euro Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 7400, CESifo.
    10. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2019. "Government Bond Yields At The Effective Lower Bound: International Evidence," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 37(1), pages 102-120, January.

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