IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jhouse/v50y2020ics105113772030067x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data

Author

Listed:
  • Hjalmarsson, Erik
  • Österholm, Pär

Abstract

Expectations about future housing prices are arguably an important determinant of actual housing prices, and an important input in decisions on whether and how to transact in the housing market. Using micro-level survey data on Swedish households, we analyse households’ expectations of housing prices and how these expectations relate to the characteristics of the respondents. Results show that age is found to be significantly related to housing-price expectations, with the youngest households – whose adulthood largely corresponds to the extended period of rapid housing-price growth in Sweden – having the highest housing-price expectations. This is consistent with the hypothesis that expectations are influenced by personal experiences. Our findings suggest that aggregate measures of expectations might hide important features of the data, which could be of interest to policy makers when choosing regulatory actions or formulating macroprudential policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:50:y:2020:i:c:s105113772030067x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101731
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S105113772030067X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jhe.2020.101731?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryan Greenaway-McGrevy & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2016. "Hot property in New Zealand: Empirical evidence of housing bubbles in the metropolitan centres," New Zealand Economic Papers, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 88-113, April.
    2. Michael F. Bryan & Guhan Venkatu, 2001. "The curiously different inflation perspectives of men and women," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Nov.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Howell E. Jackson & Brigitte C. Madrian & Peter Tufano, 2011. "Consumer Financial Protection," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 91-114, Winter.
    5. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
    6. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2019. "A micro-data analysis of households’ expectations of mortgage rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    7. Laurent E. Calvet & John Y. Campbell & Paolo Sodini, 2007. "Down or Out: Assessing the Welfare Costs of Household Investment Mistakes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(5), pages 707-747, October.
    8. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
    9. Gete, Pedro, 2020. "Expectations and the housing boom and bust. An open economy view," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    10. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
    11. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    12. Gathergood, John & Weber, Jörg, 2017. "Financial literacy: A barrier to home ownership for the young?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 62-78.
    13. Patric H. Hendershott & Joel Slemrod, 1982. "Taxes and the User Cost of Capital for Owner‐Occupied Housing," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 10(4), pages 375-393, December.
    14. Kristin J. Kleinjans & Arthur Van Soest, 2014. "Rounding, Focal Point Answers And Nonresponse To Subjective Probability Questions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(4), pages 567-585, June.
    15. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & D'Acunto, Francesco & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Gender Roles and the Gender Expectations Gap," CEPR Discussion Papers 14932, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. David C. Ling & Joseph T.L. Ooi & Thao T.T. Le, 2015. "Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 87-125, March.
    17. Philippe Andrade & Gaetano Gaballo & Eric Mengus & Benoît Mojon, 2019. "Forward Guidance and Heterogeneous Beliefs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, July.
    18. Steven C. Bourassa & Martin Hoesli & Elias Oikarinen, 2019. "Measuring House Price Bubbles," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 534-563, June.
    19. Michael F. Bryan & Guhan Venkatu, 2001. "The demographics of inflation opinion surveys," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Oct.
    20. Annamaria Lusardi & Olivia S. Mitchell, 2014. "The Economic Importance of Financial Literacy: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 5-44, March.
    21. Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
    22. Birol Kanik & Wei Xiao, 2014. "News, Housing Boom-Bust Cycles, and Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(4), pages 249-298, December.
    23. Michael D. Hurd & Daniel L. McFadden & Li Gan, 1998. "Subjective Survival Curves and Life Cycle Behavior," NBER Chapters, in: Inquiries in the Economics of Aging, pages 259-309, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Frank J. Fabozzi & Keli Xiao, 2019. "The Timeline Estimation of Bubbles: The Case of Real Estate," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(2), pages 564-594, June.
    25. Souleles, Nicholas S, 2004. "Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(1), pages 39-72, February.
    26. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    27. Glaeser, Edward L. & Nathanson, Charles G., 2017. "An extrapolative model of house price dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 147-170.
    28. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    29. Shuping Shi & Abbas Valadkhani & Russell Smyth & Farshid Vahid, 2016. "Dating the Timeline of House Price Bubbles in Australian Capital Cities," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 92(299), pages 590-605, December.
    30. Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-968, December.
    31. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals and Misperceptions," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 67-92, Fall.
    32. Jonung, Lars & Laidler, David E, 1988. "Are Perceptions of Inflation Rational? Some Evidence for Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(5), pages 1080-1087, December.
    33. Laurent E. Calvet & John Y. Campbell & Paolo Sodini, 2009. "Fight or Flight? Portfolio Rebalancing by Individual Investors," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(1), pages 301-348.
    34. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    35. Windsor, Callan & La Cava, Gianni & Hansen, James, 2015. "Home price beliefs: Evidence from Australia," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-58.
    36. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum Traders in the Housing Market: Survey Evidence and a Search Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 406-411, May.
    37. John C. Williams, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Housing Booms," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 345-355, March.
    38. Blomqvist, H. C., 1983. "On the formation of inflationary expectations: Some empirical evidence from Finland, 1979-1980," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 319-334, December.
    39. Michael Ehrmann & Damjan Pfajfar & Emiliano Santoro, 2017. "Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 225-259, February.
    40. Morten Balling & Christian Sinding Bentzen & Jesper Berg & Alan Boyce & Per Callesen & José Carrasco-Gallego & Giovanni Dell’Ariccia & R. Glenn Hubbard & Deniz Igan & Marius Jurgilus & Kevin J. Lansin, 2013. "Property Prices and Real Estate Financing in a Turbulent World," SUERF Studies, SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum, number 2013/4 edited by Morten Balling & Jesper Berg, May.
    41. Martin Schneider & Monika Piazzesi, 2009. "Momentum traders in a search model of the housing market," 2009 Meeting Papers 1266, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    42. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    43. Zarnowitz, Victor & Lambros, Louis A, 1987. "Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic Prediction," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(3), pages 591-621, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rooj, Debasis & Banerjee, Anurag & Sengupta, Reshmi, 2024. "Impact of macroprudential policies on house price expectations- evidence from survey data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Abildgren, Kim & Kuchler, Andreas, 2021. "Revisiting the inflation perception conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Ma, Chao, 2020. "Momentum and Reversion to Fundamentals: Are They Captured by Subjective Expectations of House Prices?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    3. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    4. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1332-1344, June.
    5. Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben Zhe, 2023. "Do monetary condition news at the zero lower bound influence households’ expectations and readiness to spend?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Pfajfar, D. & Santoro, E., 2008. "Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0824, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Gaurav Kumar Singh & Tathagata Bandyopadhyay, 2024. "Determinants of disagreement: Learning from inflation expectations survey of households," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 326-343, March.
    8. Charles F. Manski, 2018. "Survey Measurement of Probabilistic Macroeconomic Expectations: Progress and Promise," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 411-471.
    9. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Gisle J. Natvik, 2018. "Explaining the Boom–Bust Cycle in the U.S. Housing Market: A Reverse‐Engineering Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(8), pages 1751-1783, December.
    10. Jarko Fidrmuc & Christa Hainz & Werner Hölzl, 2018. "Individual Credit Market Experience and Perception of Aggregate Bank Lending. Evidence from a Firm Survey," WIFO Working Papers 574, WIFO.
    11. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    12. Bekiros, Stelios & Nilavongse, Rachatar & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Expectation-driven house prices and debt defaults: The effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    13. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    14. Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "The social transmission of economic sentiment on consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    15. Guiso, Luigi & Sodini, Paolo, 2013. "Household Finance: An Emerging Field," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1397-1532, Elsevier.
    16. Martin, Carolin & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2022. "Housing Markets, Expectation Formation And Interest Rates," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(2), pages 491-532, March.
    17. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
    18. Andersson, Fredrik N G & Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "Inflation Illiteracy – A Micro-Data Analysis," Working Papers 2022:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    19. David C. Ling & Joseph T.L. Ooi & Thao T.T. Le, 2015. "Explaining House Price Dynamics: Isolating the Role of Nonfundamentals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 87-125, March.
    20. Emiliano Santoro & Damjan Pfajfar, 2006. "Heterogeneity and learning in inflation expectation formation: an empirical assessment," Department of Economics Working Papers 0607, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing prices; Survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jhouse:v:50:y:2020:i:c:s105113772030067x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622881 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.