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Skill Scores and modified Lorenz domination in default forecasts

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  • Krämer, Walter
  • Neumärker, Simon

Abstract

We characterize the class of skill scores which comply with a novel partial ordering of probability forecasts based on Lorenz curves and overall default rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Krämer, Walter & Neumärker, Simon, 2019. "Skill Scores and modified Lorenz domination in default forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 61-64.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:181:y:2019:i:c:p:61-64
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.05.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Walter Krämer, 2006. "Evaluating probability forecasts in terms of refinement and strictly proper scoring rules," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 223-226.
    2. Boumparis, Periklis & Milas, Costas & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2015. "Has the crisis affected the behavior of the rating agencies? Panel evidence from the Eurozone," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 118-124.
    3. Christian Kleiber & Walter Kraemer, 2000. "Efficiency, Equity, and Generalized Lorenz Dominance," CESifo Working Paper Series 343, CESifo.
    4. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2013. "Forecasting Binary Outcomes," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1025-1106, Elsevier.
    5. R. Winkler & Javier Muñoz & José Cervera & José Bernardo & Gail Blattenberger & Joseph Kadane & Dennis Lindley & Allan Murphy & Robert Oliver & David Ríos-Insua, 1996. "Scoring rules and the evaluation of probabilities," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 5(1), pages 1-60, June.
    6. Hauck, Achim & Neyer, Ulrike, 2014. "Disagreement between rating agencies and bond opacity: A theoretical perspective," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 82-85.
    7. Walter Kraemer & Simon Neumärker, 2016. "Comparing Default Predictions in the Rating Industry for Different Sets of Obligors," CESifo Working Paper Series 5768, CESifo.
    8. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2013. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 2, number 2.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Henry Penikas, 2022. "Model Risk for Acceptable, but Imperfect, Discrimination and Calibration in Basel PD and LGD Models," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps92, Bank of Russia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Probability forecasts; Lorenz curves; Rating industry;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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